Economist Andrian Prokip draws attention to a new tactic by the Russians in attacking energy infrastructure. It has become apparent in recent weeks and could have long-term consequences — with an eye on next winter.
Cases of destruction of electricity transmission and distribution lines, as well as gas distribution pipelines, by shrapnel have become significantly more frequent. As a result of such attacks, tens of thousands of subscribers are without power. The number of attacks and outages increased significantly in February. In some cases, there were interruptions in heat supply. On February 7 alone, two gas pipelines were damaged in the Mykolaiv region.
The tragedy in Kharkiv, when drone strikes on an oil depot burned down 15 houses and killed at least 7 people. Kremenchuk and critical energy infrastructure in particular were hit.
The enemy's logic is clear – they were looking for a new tactic of shelling. And, apparently, this new tactic was to create serious problems for the supply of coal. For the current winter, which is ending, this actually does not pose a threat. But again, the question is: how will we get through the next winter?
There is a generation shortage on the left bank, and attacks in regions close to the front line will further exacerbate the shortage and related problems . Carrying out repairs in these regions is naturally much more difficult than in relatively peaceful ones. As a result, a situation will arise where many regions have no problems with electricity supply, which will create a misleading impression that there are no problems in the power system.
But, in addition to technical problems, we should expect new hostile IPSOs. Their favorite tactic is to divide and conquer among themselves. And if serious difficulties with electricity supply begin in the front-line regions, but there will be none in other regions, then we should expect attacks aimed at trying to divide the rear and front-line regions.
