Europe may not even be able to arm itself, let alone Ukraine, according to The Economist.
The outcome of wars of attrition is usually determined by which side has the better defense industry. Russia’s economy is almost 14 times larger than Ukraine’s, but the combined resources of Ukraine’s allies are far greater than Russia’s. It seemed that Ukraine should be able to win . However, now that the conflict is entering its third year, it is the defense industry that is gradually tipping the scales in Russia’s favor.
This is most noticeable in artillery ammunition. During the summer counteroffensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces fired 7,000 rounds per day, more than the Russians. Now the Russians are firing 10,000 rounds per day, while the Ukrainians are firing five times fewer.
Both America and the EU are experiencing problems with providing financial assistance. Kyiv fears that inter-party conflicts and a hostile Donald Trump will lead to Ukraine becoming completely dependent on Europe. At the same time, the total military supplies of the EU countries have already exceeded those of the US, but the picture is not uniform. While Germany has provided support for more than 17 billion euros, France has provided only half a billion.
EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is pushing for a €100 billion fund to boost Europe's defense capabilities. He says it would not only help Ukraine but also act as insurance in case Trump pulls the US out of NATO. It is unclear, however, whether anyone else in the EU supports Breton's idea.
In any case, the current measures do not correspond to the urgency of the situation. This year, Russia increased military spending by 68%, to 6.5% of its GDP. Its production of artillery ammunition is estimated at 4.5 million units per year, and long-range missiles at 100 units per month (twice as much as at the beginning of the invasion).
The US and Europe expect to increase production of 155mm shells to about 1.2 million per year by 2025. But while in the States the government is involved in ammunition, in Europe it is private companies. For example, the Norwegian-Finnish Nammo says that its orders have tripled compared to March 2022: the increase in production capacity is so huge that the company needs government support. But competition laws in the EU prevent investment in the industrial base.
One way to speed up production in Europe could be to simplify technical requirements. For example, if the shells are expected to be fired from worn-out artillery pieces in Ukraine shortly after they come off the assembly line, there is no point in providing them with long-term storage.
With long-range missiles, things are a bit more complicated: Europe has outsourced most of the production of engines for HIMARS and other systems to the US. Europe's largest manufacturer, MBDA, says that even if the investment is made now, the first missiles will probably not start shipping until 2026.
