European states have publicly demonstrated strong support for Ukraine, but they lack a strategy of their own to end the war without U.S. economic and political pressure on Russia. This poses risks, as U.S. President Donald Trump's position on the Ukrainian issue remains unpredictable, The New York Times reports.
According to the publication, European officials emphasize that security guarantees for Ukraine should be a key factor in future peace talks. They believe that reliable guarantees can be an argument that encourages Kyiv to agree to difficult compromises, including the transfer of some territories to Russia. At the same time, the United States is not yet ready to give clear commitments to support Ukraine or participate in the creation of joint European forces.
The discussions are also complicated by the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who categorically rejects the possibility of a NATO military presence in Ukraine even in the post-war period, making many European plans almost unrealistic.
Against this backdrop, European leaders are trying to find an approach to Trump and persuade him to take a more measured line towards Kyiv. The publication notes that the EU is discussing the idea of a meeting of representatives of Ukraine, Europe and the US to develop a joint peace proposal, which will be presented to Moscow in the future. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky previously stated that Kyiv could submit its updated peace plan to Washington as early as December 10.
Despite diplomatic efforts, Europe recognizes that allies must prepare for a scenario in which they will have to fight and contain Russia on their own. Senior NATO officials are closely watching the gradual withdrawal of American troops from Europe. Although about 79,000 US troops remain in the region, European armies cannot quickly replace key capabilities of the American military — from satellite intelligence to command and control systems to long-range precision weapons.
European officials acknowledge that the weakness of the defense industry also remains a critical challenge. It will take years to ramp up weapons production on a large scale. Analysts at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimate that Russia produces about 150 tanks, 550 infantry fighting vehicles, more than a hundred Lancet drones, and dozens of artillery systems each month. No other European country has come close to matching that pace today.
In a commentary for the NYT, Anna Wieslander, director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council, stressed that Ukraine is a key barrier deterring Russia from further aggression. She noted that Europe must either take greater risks now or pay a much higher price in the future.
The publication concludes: The European Union today faces a strategic challenge — how to protect Ukraine and its own security if the US reduces its role in the war.
