US President Donald Trump's threats to impose punitive tariffs on any country that tries to thwart his plans for Greenland have come as a turning point for European allies, with European political circles seeing it as yet another signal of Washington's unpredictability and willingness to act unilaterally, even to the detriment of allies.
In the absence of a radical change in the American approach, Europe may find itself faced with the need for a profound restructuring of the entire Western security system. Such a scenario could potentially change the global balance of power. European capitals are increasingly seriously considering the option of creating their own security alliance without the participation of the United States, and in this construction, Ukraine is assigned a far from secondary role.
Over the past year, European states, including those outside the European Union, have been actively working in an informal coordination group format that effectively operates without the participation of the United States. It includes the United Kingdom, Norway, and other partners. This format has been unofficially called the “coalition of the willing.”.
National security advisers from about three dozen governments are in constant contact. They regularly hold online meetings, hold face-to-face consultations, and exchange messages through informal channels. A high level of trust has developed in these circles, allowing them to quickly coordinate positions and seek common solutions in an environment where the United States is increasingly perceived as a factor of instability rather than a guarantor of security.
During this time, European leaders have developed a well-established mechanism for interaction in the event of abrupt or potentially dangerous actions by the American president. This allows them to quickly coordinate a joint response without involving Washington.
Ukraine occupies a special place in this informal association. It was around Kyiv's support that close contacts between key European capitals began to form. Ukraine's participation not only strengthened mutual trust between partners, but also created a new level of coordination, when leaders and advisors know each other directly and can quickly establish direct contact.
Ukraine is seen as a unique element of a potential security alliance. It is the most militarized state among the participants in this format, with one of the largest armies in Europe, a developed drone technology industry, and unprecedented modern combat experience. No other European country has similar practical experience in waging a full-scale war.
If Ukraine's military potential were combined with those of leading European powers such as France, Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom, the new alliance could gain enormous strength. This includes both nuclear and non-nuclear deterrence components that could ensure the security of the continent even without direct US participation.
Thus, it is increasingly obvious that Europe is gradually preparing for a scenario of strategic autonomy, in which Washington's role will be significantly limited, and Ukraine may become one of the key pillars of the new European security system.
