Fuel prices are expected to rise in Ukraine, but the reason for this is not possible disruptions in pipeline supplies from Slovakia and Hungary, but the exchange rate and the situation on the global oil market. Fuel market expert Dmytro Lyushkin reported this on social media.
According to him, the national currency exchange rate is gradually being adjusted, which affects the import component of the cost of fuel. " The currency is gradually being released, exports are being stimulated, the budget deficit is being reduced, this is understandable ," he noted.
At the same time, the situation around Iran and the tension in the Persian Gulf region play a significant role. " So with oil, the knot is tied in Iran. There are two opinions. Either in a week, or after Ramadan. But the expectation of a military operation is instilling fear in the market ," stressed Leushkin.
The expert noted that the Strait of Hormuz is a key artery of the global oil market, through which about 20% of global supplies pass. In the event of a blockage or significant restriction of tanker traffic, oil prices could rise sharply — up to $100 per barrel in a wave of panic.
" It's even hard to imagine how this will affect the cost of fuel in Ukraine ," the expert added.
According to his estimates, wholesale prices have already increased by about one hryvnia, and earlier in the week the market added about one hryvnia of gradual increase. In the near future, these changes may also affect retail prices at gas stations.
" All this will arrive in retail within two weeks. So far, there is no sign of a turnaround, so retail will follow the wholesale market like a thread following a needle ," concluded Leushkin.
