In the context of climate change, Ukraine is facing increasingly frequent natural disasters, such as large-scale forest fires and floods in Europe. Experts, including Oleg Listopad from the ANTS National Interests Protection Network, believe that to mitigate the consequences of these phenomena, it is necessary to reformat forests and adapt them to new climatic conditions.
In Ukraine, the situation is worsening due to the increased risk of fires in large areas, because “we have planted a lot of artificial pine forests,” the expert notes. And he calls for a moratorium on peat extraction in Ukraine. And spending money on utilities is a separate issue, the expert says.
They buy sakura for several million, spherical acacias. They may be beautiful, but they don't provide shade. And the weather forecaster of the Ukrhydrometeorological Center, Natalia Ptukha, said: can we expect a warm winter with such a warm September?
There is nothing strange about floods, just like in dry periods. The question is how strong these phenomena are
How is it possible that rivers overflow their banks in our neighbors, Poland and the Czech Republic, while we have a warm autumn and at the same time fires in several regions?
Oleg Listopad : There is nothing strange about floods. Just like in the dry period. There were floods in our western regions not so long ago. There is nothing special about this. The question is how strong these phenomena are and how often they occur. And these are the consequences, as experts say, of climate change. When the average global temperature on the planet increases. And it increases because greenhouse gases enter the atmosphere.
That is, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere is increasing. Because of this, the atmosphere is warming up, more moisture can accumulate in it. And if more accumulates, more can fall out. A cyclone came to European lands, and a large amount of precipitation fell there. We need to talk about how to avoid victims and reduce damage.
What do you think caused the heavy rains and floods in Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic, and Austria?
Oleg Listopad : I repeat, this is not the first time this has happened. There is nothing extraordinary in such heavy rainfall. In 2021, such rains were in Germany. The only question is the readiness of people, the readiness of the authorities of small cities and towns for such events. Czech colleagues from Prague tell me that the situation in the city itself is normal.
In the Czech Republic, a huge river valley is not being built on. After all, if we build something in the valley, it will be the one that will fall under the impact of the elements. A river valley is a kind of conditional bowl that is formed due to the fact that from time to time it is filled with a large mass of water. This is Archimedes' principle. If we throw an object of a certain volume into a vessel, then the amount of water from this vessel will spill out on the volume of this object.
By the way, in Europe there are so-called red lines. These lines are drawn on the map after similar climatic events that occur once every 50 years. And anyone who builds below these lines does not receive any compensation from the state. And no insurance company will insure such construction. And if it does, then at such interest rates that the builder himself will not want to insure himself.
Red lines
And what is happening in Ukraine?
Oleg Listopad : In Ukraine, the State Emergency Service should have developed such red lines by 2024. I understand that the State Emergency Service is not up to it now. Although I am not sure that the specialists who should be doing this are directly engaged in clearing the rubble. Therefore, it would be worth asking the State Emergency Service where our maps with red lines are?
When there were floods in Transcarpathia in the 1990s, people openly speculated about it, using support programs that helped people relocate. And after a while I saw that people started building housing 20 meters from the river. I asked the village head then, how is that possible, because there were floods very recently? And I heard in response that they had nowhere else to build. I don’t even know what to call such thinking and such behavior.
“My T-shirt says: ‘Let’s turn the environment from a victim into a weapon’”
How abnormally warm and dry is this fall?
Oleg Listopad : There are two ways to respond to climate change in general: reduce emissions, reduce the use of fossil fuels, stop the war in Ukraine, which is burning oil depots, burning forests, wasting money that could be spent on stopping climate change. Our environmentalists, wherever they go, convey this idea to all international organizations: if you don't care about human tears, then think about yourself, stop the war, provide weapons, impose sanctions.
Russia must pay for this; my T-shirt says: “Let’s turn the environment from a victim into a weapon.” Today, our environment is a victim, but it must be turned into a weapon. Information about our destroyed environment must be turned into a weapon. And we must make this factor work for our victory as well.
“Now, licenses for peat and amber mining are being handed out like hot cakes”
And our warm autumn is anomalous?
Oleg Listopad : Let's remember 2020. Autumn was even hotter. Then there was a winter with little snow. And then the State Agency for Water Resources limited water use. There were restrictions for energy workers, there was not enough water even in reservoirs. This affected the harvests and everything. And that year there were also terrible fires.
The second way to respond to climate change is to adapt to these changes. And this is where we have trouble. Although plans are being developed. A well-known specialist, meteorologist Svitlana Krakowska, together with her colleagues, participated in the development of adaptation plans for three regions.
We also have a fantastic specialist in forest fire safety, Doctor of Biological Sciences Serhiy Zibtsev. He has a team, and they have a whole package of proposals. After 2020, after these huge fires, a draft strategy was prepared. I followed this link to the Ministry of Environment website and did not find this page. It is not known what will happen to this strategy, and how we will fight fires, and what our plans are. And the plans are actually not that complicated.
- First, we need to ban peat extraction and drainage of peatlands and swamps. And since Soviet times, large-scale land reclamation has been taking place in our country. And now, like hot cakes, licenses for peat and amber extraction are being handed out. The state receives a million or two hryvnias for this license, and then the losses from fires amount to hundreds of millions. And the shortfall in the harvest, because there is nothing to water, amounts to billions. That is why we need a moratorium on peat extraction. And restoring peatlands is actually not difficult. There is experience from European countries, and there are Ukrainian specialists who understand this issue.
- Secondly, we have a lot of artificial pine forests planted. And this is pine of the same age. The so-called one-age monoculture. The fires that we observe occur in dry forests. There, any spark leads to ignition.
“Forests need to be reformatted”
What can be done with these forests?
Oleg Listopad : Forests need to be reformatted. There is a lot of talk about this, but nothing is being done. Pine is still being planted. I observe other species in small quantities, for example, in some places they may plant a row of red oak. But there are no cardinal changes.
Tell us about that cyclone “Boris” in Europe. Where did it come from and why is it so powerful?
Natalia Ptukha: Its effect has been practically minimized. The frontal systems associated with it have moved to the territory of Italy. But they are no longer so active and do not cause catastrophic consequences. Cyclones are low-pressure fields. They are always there. Just like anticyclones are high-pressure fields. These are two opposing baric forces that shape the weather on the globe.
They just come in different intensities, depending on the conditions they find themselves in. There was a peak of activity of this cyclone over Central Europe. This cyclone turned out to be blocked, because from the north, from the northeast, a powerful high-pressure field – an anticyclone – was located. Accordingly, it blocked this cyclone over Central Europe, and it was not able to move anywhere further. So for several days it was actually spinning in one place.
That's why there was so much precipitation in certain areas. Also, an additional factor was that the prerequisite for precipitation is always a temperature difference. That is, precipitation falls on atmospheric fronts, and atmospheric fronts are, in fact, conditional lines of separation between warm and cold air masses. When warm and cold air meet, then clouds and precipitation appear. This is in simple terms.
The situation developed as follows. It was from the north, from the northern latitudes, that there was an intense influx of cold air into the territory of Central Europe at that time. At the same time, a rather warm, hot air mass settled over the Black Sea, over the southeastern part of Europe, and over Ukraine, as for September.
With such a warm September, can we expect a warm winter?
The warm autumn will continue?
Natalia Ptukha: The weather will be clear in most regions. And it will be for a fairly long period.
How long is the period??
Natalia Ptukha : We will have a high pressure area until the 25th. Without any chance of precipitation.
With such a warm September, can we expect a warm winter?
Natalia Ptukha: We cannot guarantee such a direct correlation and connection. And there is no such connection. But there is a general trend. We have climate change, and for the last 12, even 13 months in a row, the average global temperature has been higher than in the entire history of synoptic observations. And this means that there will be more periods of warm days. But we are a country of seasonal changes, so there may be cold spells and frosty days. It's just that according to the global trend, the period of cold days with frosts is becoming less and less.
“Why shave the green grass in the yards? To write off this gasoline?”
What else do we need to change in light of climate change?
Oleg Listopad : Life in big cities could be made more comfortable by not mowing the grass. There have already been petitions from Kyiv residents regarding this. There is irrigation on cultivated lawns, and the grass there does not look yellow immediately after mowing. But why shave the green grass in the yards? To write off this gasoline? To write off some funds under the guise of these works? There are experimental plots with mixed grass. And they are beautiful! But these are trifles.
Also, trees are being trimmed completely illiterately. Instead of pruning the crown, the lower frame branches are cut off. The spending of funds by our utilities during the war is a separate issue. Sakura trees are being purchased for several million, spherical acacias. They may be beautiful, but they do not provide shade. Everything is aimed at laundering money, and not at conducting the green economy that will provide maximum benefit at the lowest cost.
Green zones are being destroyed in order to put up some kind of levees. Of course, business should work, but not at the expense of green zones. In order to adapt to climate change, we need to join the EU and build a rule of law.
