Global warming could significantly change the map of Ukraine by the end of the 21st century. According to new data from the public organization “Ecodia”, a rise in sea level due to an increase in average temperature could flood significant parts of the Ukrainian coast. The modeling was conducted under two scenarios: moderate (warming by +1.5–2°C) and critical (warming by +4°C). The results, published in the study “Water is Near”, indicate a potentially profound transformation of entire regions.
In the event of an increase in temperature by +4°C, about 1.168 million hectares of Ukrainian territories may be under water. According to the head of the board of Greenpeace in Ukraine, Yevgenia Zasyadko, flooding threatens not only natural areas, but also residential areas, enterprises, agricultural lands and even military training grounds.
“The coastal territory of Ukraine will be partially flooded. This includes 212 thousand hectares of agricultural areas, 35 thousand hectares of buildings. There are even territories close to the sea where military training grounds are located,” she noted.
Some of the areas that could potentially be submerged are currently occupied. The analysis was based on 2018 data, and experts warn that real changes will be felt by 2100. What was considered a distant prospect a few decades ago now looks like a rapidly approaching threat.
Yevheniya Zasyadko recalled that the global community has long had tools to prevent critical scenarios. The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement committed countries to consistently reduce greenhouse gas emissions every ten years in order to keep warming within safe parameters. However, the implementation of these obligations turned out to be much less systematic than expected.
“The question now is whether we will be able to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and what future scenario will become a reality,” she emphasized.
The situation is also complicated by the position of the United States, a key player in global climate policy. The country's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, signed by President Donald Trump, according to experts, weakens international efforts to curb the effects of global warming and complicates coordination between states.
The consequences of rising sea levels could dramatically affect the lives of millions of Ukrainians and change the economies of regions that depend on coastal infrastructure, agricultural production and transport. Environmentalists are calling on governments to strengthen adaptation plans and accelerate the pace of emissions reductions to avoid worst-case scenarios.
