F-16 fighters are due to arrive in Ukraine in a few weeks, but Ukrainian and Western officials warn that the planes are unlikely to make a difference on the front line, where Russia is slowly advancing.
According to The Washington Post, the number of aircraft is insufficient and Russian air defense systems are too numerous. Therefore, it is likely that the first F-16s will be used to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses, shooting down missiles, drones and enemy aircraft, rather than to strike Russian troops and facilities near the front.
Officials say the planes are unlikely to fly too close to the front lines initially, so it is unclear whether they will be able to deter enemy aircraft from crossing Ukraine’s border at all. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine needs more than 100 F-16s to counter Russia’s large air force, and the number of planes it will receive is “insufficient.”.
Some analysts are even more skeptical. Becca Wasser of the Center for a New American Security believes that the F-16s may be most effective as a psychological and morale booster for the Ukrainians and as a deterrent for the Russian military, as battlefield conditions have changed since the decision to transfer the jets was made. She also notes that they can meet immediate needs, including shooting down enemy aircraft and striking ground targets.
Ukraine also cannot afford to lose a large number of experienced pilots for an extended period of time, as they are needed for combat duty. Therefore, it is impossible to train many Ukrainian pilots at the same time.
As for armament, F-16s typically carry a variety of weapons. Ukrainian F-16s will be equipped with AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles, which also use NASAMS ground-based air defense systems. One version of these missiles has a range of about 100 miles, but Ukraine has a limited supply of AIM-120s, and they will have to be divided between F-16s and NASAMS.
Protecting the F-16s on the ground will also be a challenge, as all of Ukraine's airfields are within range of Russian missiles. Ukraine does not have the capacity to build covered concrete hangars to protect the aircraft, so it will use camouflage and leave decoys at the airfields.
The F-16's advantages include a radar that can detect targets at a distance of about 125 miles, making the aircraft safer because pilots do not need to get close to enemy aircraft to shoot them down. Although the F-16 is superior to the fighters Ukraine currently has, it is still an old-generation fighter compared to the new Russian aircraft.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the F-16s will help the Ukrainian defenders, but their capabilities will be limited at the front. Ukrainian Ambassador to the US Oksana Markarova noted that the F-16s will be involved in combat operations in Ukraine this year. Currently, Ukrainian diplomacy in the US is working to increase the number of pilots and personnel trained.
