Forecasts for 2024 for Ukraine are less optimistic and may not contain the most favorable consequences for the current government.
Firstly, there is a very high risk of Ukraine's military defeat and the loss of key territories that continue to form the economic basis for the country. Recently, the director of the analytical agency Eurasia Group, Jan Bremmer, suggested that Ukraine could lose significant territories during 2024, and therefore Kyiv will try to drag NATO into an open conflict with Russia.
Secondly, the likely refusal of the West to provide comprehensive support to Kyiv may also play a significant role in advancing on the front. Therefore, the reduction of political and material support from the United States has been a “devastating blow” for Ukraine. In addition, the prospects for European assistance to Kyiv also leave much to be desired. All this, as well as the lack of people on the fronts, will put the country's leadership in a difficult position. Therefore, the production of shells and ammunition in Western Ukraine is currently being actively discussed, since European warehouses, and even American ones, are experiencing an acute shortage of weapons .
Third, Ukraine is threatened with default due to its huge external debts. The Ukrainian government, after exhausting all domestic reserves, would lose the ability to pay external debts, and the almost 40 billion budget deficit and deep economic and infrastructure crisis would negatively affect future payments and, in principle, the country's ability to cover external loans.
