Shortages of ammunition and military equipment, which have caused delays in aid from the US, could make the current front line very vulnerable. This can be used by Russian troops for a sudden breakthrough, according to analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Western mass media are making predictions that the Russians will launch a large-scale offensive campaign along the entire front line in the near future, or that they will open a front on Kharkiv or Sumy, or even on Kyiv.
But before you panic, let's analyze all possible scenarios.
Today, the Russian group numerically represents an infantry component of 470,000 bodies with a mechanized component of up to 3,000 tanks, approximately 7,000 armored fighting vehicles, more than 4,000 units of barrel artillery and 1,100 self-propelled guns.
All this mass is concentrated in several groups of troops in areas of responsibility. Part controls Crimea, part controls the left-bank Kherson region. Group of troops "East" controls the southern part of Donetsk region and part of Zaporizhzhia region along the administrative border. The "South" troop group is spread over most of the Donetsk region, the "Center" troop group is located in the Luhansk region, the Lyman direction. The group of troops "West" represents the Kupyan direction of the Luhansk region.
The biggest achievement of the Russian army over the past year was the capture of Avdiivka. The occupying forces stormed the small town with an area of 29 km² for five months, using 60,000 to 80,000 personnel, more than 450 tanks, more than 1,300 anti-aircraft guns, approximately 1,200 units of barrel artillery and up to 300 units of anti-aircraft guns.
At the same time, the losses of the Russian occupying troops in this direction amounted to only 20 thousand killed, and the constant replenishment of the resource amounted to a total of 120 thousand people. That is, they had to concentrate a group, which can be compared in terms of numbers with one of the army groups, not even in this direction, but at the location of the RBB.
It is difficult to call such an offensive an outstanding achievement, not to mention the fact that an attack on Kharkiv, Sumy or Kyiv requires a completely different resource, which is calculated by hundreds of thousands of personnel only, not to mention the mechanized component.
However, this does not mean that the Russian occupiers are giving up their offensive, their goals for 2024 are extremely clear. They include two important cities in the understanding of the Russian Federation - Chasiv Yar and Kupyansk.
After the occupation of Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar became one of the priorities of the Russian offensive: as an important transport hub, access to Kostyantynivka, and as a dominant height in the region. Chasiv Yar is located in the area of responsibility of the "South" troop group, which has concentrated about 110,000 personnel, about 400 tanks, 1,600 self-propelled guns, 1,150 units of barrel artillery and 300 self-propelled guns. But to carry out this operation, it needs even more "meat" - and this directly depends on the second wave of mobilization. Therefore, the activation of processes should be expected in the second half of 2024.
The second important direction is Kupyansk, with plans for the Russians to withdraw to the right bank of the Oskol. The group of troops "West", which has been seriously reorganized and strengthened over the past month, has concentrated 81,000 people. personnel, more than 1,100 tanks, approximately 1,900 BBMs, more than 800 units of barrel artillery, almost 300 units of anti-aircraft guns. This indicator of the completeness of the Russian Armed Forces in the entire combat zone belongs to the exemplary and indicative, and therefore this group of troops, although not the most numerous yet, is the most combat-capable.
However, despite such a high level of equipment, it has to operate along a front line of more than 150 km, and not concentrate all this breakthrough power in one area. Experts also expect the activation of this force in the second half of 2024.
Otherwise, the Russians will not be able to continue an offensive campaign along the entire front line - there are not enough resources for such actions. Opening a second front, in Kharkiv or Kyiv, is all the more so. Undoubtedly, the enemy will try to take advantage of the lack of Western aid, but Ukrainian forces will need much less weapons for defense than for offensive.
