The issue of a possible increase in utility tariffs remains relevant for Ukrainians starting in 2026. Oleh Popenko, Chairman of the Union of Consumers of Utilities, explained under what conditions the figures in payments may increase during the year and which services are at risk.
Ukraine has had a moratorium on increasing gas and heat tariffs for the population since 2022 until the end of martial law. According to the baseline scenario, gas prices for household consumers will remain unchanged throughout 2026. At the same time, according to the expert, if hostilities end and martial law is lifted in the first half of the year, tariffs may begin to be revised as early as the end of 2026.
According to Popenko, the principled decision on a possible increase in tariffs is already being discussed at the level of government documents. However, it can be implemented only after the completion of parliamentary and local elections. This is the period of November-December 2026. Until then, according to the expert, no government will dare to increase utility payments.
Currently, the vast majority of the population is subject to a fixed gas tariff of 7.96 hryvnias per cubic meter. At the same time, the option of increasing the price to a level that will cover the costs of gas production is being discussed. The final figure has not yet been determined, but, according to expert estimates, it could be about 12 hryvnias per cubic meter on average.
The cost of heating directly depends on the price of gas. According to Popenko, gas accounts for about 95% of the cost of heating and utility services. Therefore, any increase in the price of “blue fuel” will almost automatically lead to an increase in tariffs for heat and hot water. If heating currently costs an average of 40–50 hryvnias per square meter, then in the event of a tariff revision, the amount may increase to 70–80 hryvnias. At the same time, there is no final decision on this issue at the moment, and an increase is possible only after the lifting of martial law.
As for electricity, it is not subject to the moratorium. Currently, the tariff for the population is 4.32 hryvnias per kilowatt-hour and has not changed since June 2024. According to Popenko, a review of the price of electricity is possible in 2026, since a separate government decision is sufficient for this. At the same time, the expert notes that a scenario of an annual tariff increase of approximately 20% over several years is being discussed, but so far these are only calculations, not adopted decisions.
Separately, the issue of water tariffs remains. At the end of 2025, the government called on the regulator not to increase the cost of water supply for the population. Despite the fact that the commission had previously tried to revise tariffs, these decisions were canceled. Recently, the price of water for businesses was increased, after which attempts to adjust tariffs for the population began again, but they were again not implemented.
According to Popenko, water utilities insist on raising water tariffs, but the government is still taking a restrained position. At the same time, the expert predicts that by the end of 2026, the water tariff may increase, but again, only after the end of martial law and parliamentary elections. There are currently no specific calculations regarding the possible increase.
Thus, the baseline scenario for Ukrainians in 2026 involves maintaining current tariffs. A real increase in utility payments is possible only after the end of the war, the lifting of martial law, and after the election cycle at the end of the year.
