Signals about fuel price increases on the Ukrainian market, which appeared in September, increasingly sound like a real threat. According to some analysts, in October a liter of A-95 gasoline may jump to 62–65 hryvnias, and in some networks - up to 70 hryvnias/l. Diesel fuel may also increase in price at a similar level. Currently, the average retail price of A-95 fluctuates around 58.72 hryvnias/l, diesel - 55.87 hryvnias/l, but a number of factors create the prerequisites for further growth.
One of these factors is the issue of the origin of imported fuel. On September 15, the SBU asked the Energy Customs to limit the supply of petroleum products from India and to require mandatory laboratory analysis of each batch - due to suspicions of the use of Russian oil in production. However, experts doubt that a qualitative check will solve the problem: energy specialist Gennady Ryabtsev emphasizes that it is practically impossible to establish the origin of already processed fuel even with the help of modern equipment, and supporting documents can be easily forged through offshore or transit through third countries.
Potential restrictions on imports through the Romanian port of Constanta add another layer of uncertainty. About a quarter of all petroleum products to Ukraine arrive through this port as a reserve, and according to the A-95 consulting group, more than 75% of fuel imported through Constanta is of Indian or Turkish origin. The company’s chairman, Serhiy Cuiun, does not rule out that in October restrictions could affect not only India but also supplies through the port itself — an issue that Romanian officials are currently discussing with traders to prevent products of dubious origin from entering the market.
The situation is also influenced by the position of large refiners. In particular, the Indian giant Reliance processes more than 60 million tons of oil annually; in its work, a significant share of Russian resources makes products competitive in price, but at the same time creates risks in the context of sanctions policy. It is through such supply chains that the issue of the origin of raw materials acquires geopolitical and regulatory significance.
Another long-term factor of pressure on prices is changes in the excise tax burden as part of European integration obligations. From January 1, 2026, the excise tax rate on gasoline is to increase from 271.7 to 300 euros per thousand liters, and on diesel from 215.7 to 253.8 euros. This will approximately add about 1.5 UAH to the price of a liter of gasoline and up to 2 UAH to diesel, but the final effect will depend on the pricing policy of gas station chains, the level of competition, and other external factors.
However, there are mitigating factors in the market. After the shock of 2022, Ukraine significantly diversified its fuel supplies: if before the full-scale invasion, up to 70% of gasoline and 40% of diesel were imported from Russia and Belarus, today supplies come from a wider range of sources - Greece, Turkey, the US and other countries. Traders are demonstrating flexibility and are already looking for alternatives to Indian and Turkish supplies in case of restrictions.
Forecasts from official institutions are more moderate. The National Bank of Ukraine estimates a possible increase in fuel prices by an average of 8% in 2026 and another 6.9% in 2027. NBU analysts indicate that this is partially offset by the expected strengthening of the hryvnia, stabilization of world oil prices, and the adaptation of traders to new logistics and regulatory conditions.
In the short term, the key factors are regulatory decisions, the efficiency of customs inspections, and the speed of finding alternative routes and suppliers. If laboratory import restrictions are wide-ranging and supplies via Constanta are significantly reduced, pressure on retail prices could become noticeable as early as October. If the inspection system is targeted and traders promptly reorient logistics, buyers will be able to avoid the worst-case scenarios. At the same time, the increase in excise duties from the beginning of 2026 will remain a fixed cost factor that sellers will build into the price of fuel regardless of short-term fluctuations.
