The goal of Russia's war in Ukraine - the destruction of the Defense Forces of Ukraine - remains unchanged. Despite a huge advantage in resources, Russia has not been able to fulfill this task for almost two years.
Along with the heroism of the Ukrainian military and the rallying of the population around the state, the support of the West played a key role in this. It is this support that strengthens the global dimension of the war and makes it impossible for Russia to achieve its Napoleonic goals.
These goals include, first of all, the annexation of Ukrainian territories declared by Moscow's political leadership as "historical Russian lands"; and the creation of a political entity that is completely dependent on Moscow in the management of those Ukrainian lands that cannot be directly annexed.
Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, hopes that victory over Ukraine will help him regain control of the former Soviet republics along the lines of Russian imperialism, which both preceded and followed the communist era. The Kremlin understands that if Ukraine falls, it will be easier for it to reclaim other former Soviet republics. If Ukraine persists, Russia's loss of influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia will be a matter of time.
By attacking Ukraine, Russia believes that it is simultaneously at war with the West. Putin hopes for a domino effect. He believes that if the West , and above all the USA, suffers a crushing defeat in Ukraine (the second such humiliation in just a few years after the disorderly withdrawal from Afghanistan), then it will quickly lose global influence.
Revisionist states that have turned their eyes on Ukraine will see this and decide that their time has come. As a result, a new, multipolar world order will be established in a few years, in which the most important issues will be decided by a number of large competing states, including Russia. Xi Jinping, the leader of China, the West's strongest competitor, is watching the war closely and drawing his own conclusions.
Russia knows that the victory it craves over Ukraine will have a global effect. Russia also understands that it will not be able to achieve its goals there without destroying the world order.
Over the past two years, Moscow has built a coalition that includes North Korea and Iran, as well as a number of less overtly active players from the global south, hoping to capitalize on rising geopolitical tensions. This coalition is largely informal in nature, but its influence is acutely felt: it provides political and material support for Russian aggression by supplying artillery shells, drones and other military equipment and technology. In addition to the military sphere, it spends a lot of energy on economic, cyber and information warfare and other subversive activities. Its goal is to destabilize the world order.
Russia and its allies enjoy a huge privilege. They are fighting with brute force to create a new global order, while many in the West primarily seek to use soft power to preserve the old one that emerged from the Cold War. It has long been known that those who rely on force to bring about the new have a significant advantage over the adherents of the old, who, by and large, voluntarily impose limitations on the means of achieving their goals.
At the same time, if Russia fails to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield, its global goals will be significantly undermined. Strengthening the defense and security potential of Ukraine, as well as ensuring the stability of society and the state, is the easiest and cheapest way for the West to stop Russia and other revisionist states.
Today, Ukraine is able to repel Russian aggression with adequate military and economic support from the West. This support will remain effective if it is sustained (until Russian aggression ceases) and comprehensive (including political, economic, military, and intelligence support, as well as assistance in countering cyber warfare and disinformation).
The most recent example of this approach is the signing of the Security Cooperation Agreement between Ukraine and Great Britain on January 12. With the exception of the Baltic states, which are now part of the EU and NATO, this was the third agreement of its kind between a former Soviet republic and another country. The first two - between Turkey and Azerbaijan in 2021 and between France and Armenia in 2023 - had some impact on the South Caucasus, but did not change the rules of the game.
The agreement between Ukraine and Great Britain could turn out to be much more significant. This is the first project of its kind that touched the core of the former Russian Empire; Putin considers Ukraine to be an integral part of "historical" Russia. This is the first agreement between Ukraine and a major power that establishes the emerging geopolitical reality in a legal agreement. This marks a profound shift in the West's approach to the Russian concept of its "spheres of influence." The restrained reaction of the British media to the agreement shows how normal and routine Anglo-Ukrainian relations in the field of defense and security have become in public consciousness.
Now, as throughout history, Great Britain can serve as an example for others. The agreement , signed on January 12, may pave the way for similar agreements with other Western countries. Eleven of them are at various stages of negotiations regarding such agreements with Ukraine. The g7 joint declaration of support for Ukraine, signed at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023, is clearly bearing fruit.
Agreements on cooperation in the field of security gradually bring Ukraine into the Western security space, without requiring the presence of Western troops on Ukrainian soil. They are getting the world used to Ukraine's participation in the alliance. Such agreements create the basis for Ukraine's accession to NATO, which was decided back in 2008 in Bucharest. This is the best security guarantee not only for Ukraine, but also for the whole of Eastern Europe.
By signing the security agreement, Great Britain took a step in deterring the Russians. As others follow suit, their combined efforts will have a major impact on Russia's war of aggression and future ambitions. To ensure victory, Ukraine needs such joint efforts. A long way consists of many steps.
