The main battles of the second year of the great war between Russia and Ukraine

The second year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine showed a tendency to "freeze" the conflict. During this period of time, both sides failed to break through the enemy's defenses to a significant depth, and the war turned from maneuvering to positional.

But even under such conditions, battles took place that will go down in history.

During 2023 and early 2024, Russia was able to win bloody and fierce battles for two cities in Donetsk region - Bakhmut and Avdiivka. In both cases, according to Ukrainian and Western intelligence, the Kremlin suffered disproportionately large losses in manpower.

Ukraine, in its turn, could not achieve the announced goals of its offensive. However, she managed to break through the powerful Russian defense line in the Zaporizhzhia region and conduct an extremely difficult operation to force the Dnieper and hold the bridgehead on the left bank of the Kherson region.

We recall how it all happened.

Bakhmut

Having recovered from painful defeats in Kharkiv and Kherson regions in the fall of 2022, Russia began its powerful offensive operation in Donbas. The target was the industrial town of Bakhmut.

The main driving force behind the Russian attacks are mercenary units of the private military company "Wagner". Its owner - Yevgeny Prigozhin - openly recruited thousands of prisoners from Russian prisons. They were used as "cannon fodder" on the battlefield.

They began to put pressure on the Ukrainian defenses near Bakhmut back in the fall of 2022, and in January 2023 they managed to break through the defenses near the town of Soledar, 5 km north of Bakhmut.

After this success, the Russians began to rapidly surround the city from the southern and northern flanks.

At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities had a question: whether to withdraw the troops from Bakhmut so that they would not be surrounded, or to hold on to the last. According to the media, the then Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces General Valery Zaluzhny was in favor of the withdrawal and preservation of forces, while President Volodymyr Zelenskyi was against it. Accordingly, the Ukrainian military was ordered to hold on to the last in Bakhmut.

As of the beginning of spring, the Russians managed to cut most of the roads to the city. The last road leading from Bakhmut to the village of Chasiv Yar was under constant threat of attacks.

In addition to bypassing the flanks, "Wagner" fighters also entered the city and began fighting in residential buildings. The Russians destroyed block by block. A bird's-eye view of the city shows that Bakhmut has been destroyed by almost 90% in half a year of fighting.

In May, Russian forces pushed the Ukrainians to the outskirts, and on May 20, the Kremlin announced that it had completely captured Bakhmut. The Ukrainian authorities have never publicly acknowledged this.

The operation in this direction was called the "Bakhmut Meat Grinder" because of the huge losses on both sides. Official data on the dead are still unknown, but according to rough estimates, they may reach up to 50,000 fighters.

Robotine

In parallel with how the battle for Bakhmut continued, Ukraine was preparing new units to carry out its offensive. The new brigades were trained in the West and armed with foreign armored vehicles, including Leopard tanks and Bradley armored vehicles.

The Ukrainian offensive began on June 4 in the Zaporizhzhia region. Units of the Armed Forces did not advance on one section of the front, but on several at once. But the main direction of the attack was near the village of Robotyne. This is a small village that lies between the Ukrainian city of Orihiv and the Russian-occupied Tokmak.

It was important for Ukraine to capture Robotyn, then move to Tokmak and exit to Melitopol to cut the Russian land corridor from Crimea to Donbas.

But the first Ukrainian attacks in this region failed. The Russians built powerful defensive fortifications that included many kilometers of trenches, tank obstacles and huge minefields.

Because of this, the Ukrainians could not quickly release Robotyn and came under fire from the Russians. In addition, the Ukrainian army had no cover from the air, and therefore the fighters on the ground were defenseless.

In the first days of the offensive, the Armed Forces lost many soldiers and equipment near Robotyny. In the neighboring areas, the offensive continued a little better. Near the village of Velika Novosilka, the Ukrainians managed to liberate 5 villages and advance 10 km deep into the Russian defense.

However, the battle for the small village of Robotyne lasted almost three months. The Ukrainians decided to change their tactics and use scarce Western armored vehicles less, instead attacking more with infantry groups.

This gave a result - on August 28, the Ukrainian authorities announced the release of Robotyny from the Russian troops.

But the Ukrainian army spent too much energy and time on this, and therefore could not move further towards Tokmak and Melitopol. By the end of autumn, the offensive here actually stopped.

Already in the winter, Russian troops began their attacks on Robotyne, trying to nullify the successes of the offensive of the Armed Forces in this area.

Kryna A bridgehead in the Kherson region

One of the biggest successes for the Ukrainian army in 2023 was the bridgehead on the left bank of the Kherson region.

After the liberation of the regional center of Kherson in 2022, the front line between Ukrainian and Russian troops passed along the Dnipro River. None of the sides had enough strength and means to successfully force this water obstacle and land on the enemy's shore.

In addition, at the beginning of June, the dam of the Kakhovskaya HPP was blown up, which flooded large areas in the Kherson region. Ukrainian authorities and international experts say that the explosion could have been staged by Russia in order to interfere with the military operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

But in the fall of 2023, it became known that the Ukrainian military was still able to cross the Dnipro and create a bridgehead on the left bank.

For a long time, this was not officially reported, only in mid-November the Ukrainian authorities announced the bridgehead.

This bridgehead is very small and is located near the village of Krynky. Russia is trying to eliminate it, constantly shelling it with artillery and aircraft. The settlement was practically wiped off the face of the Earth.

Despite everything, Ukrainian fighters manage to hold the bridgehead.

It is important for restraining the troops of the Russian Federation, as well as for the Ukrainian army to be able to move further in the Kherson region towards the occupied Crimea.

Russian Defense Minister Serhiy Shoigu reported to Vladimir Putin on February 20 that Krynky was "cleared" of Ukrainian troops. But this turned out to be untrue, as Ukrainian sources and Russian "military bloggers" immediately stated.

The operation of such a long-term holding of the bridgehead, which is located on the enemy's shore and is provided exclusively with the help of boats, without armored vehicles and aviation, has every chance to enter the textbooks of military art.

Avdiyivka

Avdiivka is a small industrial town very close to Donetsk, captured by pro-Russian militants 10 years ago - in the spring of 2014.

All these years, Avdiivka was held by Ukrainian troops, who built strong defensive fortifications there.

On October 10, 2023, the Russian army launched a powerful offensive on Avdiivka to drive Ukrainian forces out of the city.

According to Kyiv's estimates, at the beginning, about 40,000 Russian troops took part in the offensive, moving from the southern and northern flanks, trying to bypass Avdiivka and encircle it. In general, according to military analysts, 60,000-80,000 Russian soldiers took part in the operation.

The Ukrainian authorities said that the Russians suffered huge losses here. Yes, only in the first month of the offensive they lost about 10,000 soldiers. In just 4 months of the Avdiyiv operation, the losses of the Russian Federation, according to the calculations of the Ukrainian General Staff, amounted to 17,000 dead and almost 30,000 wounded.

Russian military officer, "military blogger" Andriy Morozov (Murz) provided similar data. He reported that Russia lost 16,000 soldiers near Avdiivka. Due to the disclosure of this information, pressure began on him and he committed suicide.

During the first three months of fighting near Avdiivka, the Russians managed to advance only a few kilometers to the north and south of the city. They also approached the local coke-chemical plant, which was maintained by the Ukrainians.

The breakthrough of the front occurred at the end of January and the beginning of February. Then groups of Russian troops were able to move through an abandoned underground water pipeline to a residential building in the south of Avdiyivka, and later broke through a country estate in the northeast of the city.

Instead of encircling the entire city, the Russians began to "cut" in half the Ukrainian garrison defending it. They quickly approached and were able to take control of the main road from Avdiivka through the village of Lastochkine. In such conditions, it became too risky for the Armed Forces to stay in the city.

On the morning of February 17, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Avdiivka, and Russia announced the capture of the city.

What happens next?

The third year of a full-scale war is unlikely to bring a lull on the front, experts predict.

It is quite possible that Russia will try to continue its offensive in Donbas. Its nearest targets may be the towns of Chasiv Yar, Novomykhailivka and Vugledar. Russian troops have already significantly increased their pressure on these areas of the front.

The Russians will also try to capture Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region, which is an important railway junction and has a favorable strategic location on the Oskil River.

Ukrainian authorities are likely to focus on defense and the preparation of new reserves. If the international support for Ukraine does not fall and the West gives enough weapons to the Armed Forces, then it is possible that the Ukrainian troops will be able to conduct local offensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia region, as well as in the Kherson region.

They can become successful if Ukraine receives a sufficient number of long-range missiles and the promised F-16 aircraft. These modern aircraft will be able to provide air cover for ground forces.

However, the vast majority of analysts are sure that the third year of the great war will be primarily a year of strategic defense and preparation of new reserves for Ukraine.