Rumors spread that the printing press for issuing the national currency in Ukraine continues to mass-print hryvnias. All experts predict hyperinflation by the end of this year and the beginning of the next. Be ready for it. The hryvnia may fall low at one point.
From an economic point of view, 2024 will be different from the previous one. Even at the beginning of last year, economic growth of up to 1% was predicted, but in fact there was a 5% growth of the economy.
At the end of 2023, the National Bank revised the forecast and talked about the growth of the economy at the level of about 3%. It is also worth taking into account enemy strikes on energy and port infrastructure. This immediately indicates a minus 0.6% growth of the economy.
The National Bank will update the macro forecast. We will see updated figures on inflation. For example, thanks to various successful actions of the National Bank and the government, we managed to keep the macroeconomic situation as it was last year.
Inflation at the end of 2023 was about 5%. At the end of April 2023, it was 3.2%, and according to the forecasts of the National Bank of Ukraine, inflation will increase in the second half of 2024, and by the end of the year it will be about 8%. Then it will "turn around" and by the end of next year it will amount to approximately 5%, Vasyl Furman emphasized.
Regarding such an important indicator as gold and foreign exchange reserves, i.e. the financial cushion of the Ukrainian hryvnia, they are forecast by the National Bank at a sufficiently high level. If we talk about the year 2024, then it is 42 billion dollars, and for 2025 - 43 billion, so the situation is not easy.
We also have a shortage of personnel on the labor market, which negatively affects economic growth.
