The goal of Russia’s war in Ukraine – the destruction of the Ukrainian Defense Forces – remains unchanged. Despite its vast resource advantage, Russia has been unable to accomplish this task for almost two years.
Along with the heroism of the Ukrainian military and the rallying of the population around the state, Western support played a key role in this. It is this support that strengthens the global dimension of the war and makes it impossible for Russia to achieve its Napoleonic goals.
These goals include, first of all, the annexation of Ukrainian territories declared by Moscow's political leadership as "historical Russian lands"; and the creation of a political entity that is completely dependent on Moscow in the administration of those Ukrainian lands that cannot be directly annexed.
Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, hopes that victory over Ukraine will help him regain control of the former Soviet republics on the principles of Russian imperialism that both preceded and followed the communist era. The Kremlin understands that if Ukraine falls, it will be easier for it to regain control of other former Soviet republics. If Ukraine holds out, Russia’s loss of influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia will be a matter of time.
By attacking Ukraine, Russia believes that it is simultaneously at war with the West. Putin is hoping for a domino effect. He believes that if the West , and primarily the United States, suffers a crushing defeat in Ukraine (the second such humiliation in just a few years after the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan), then he will quickly lose global influence.
The revisionist powers that have set their sights on Ukraine will see this and decide that their time has come. The result will be a new, multipolar world order in a few years, in which the most important issues will be decided by a number of major competing powers, including Russia. Xi Jinping, the leader of China, the West’s most powerful rival, is watching the war closely and drawing his own conclusions.
Russia knows that the victory it desires over Ukraine will have global repercussions. Russia also understands that it cannot achieve its goals there without destroying the world order.
Over the past two years, Moscow has built a coalition that includes North Korea and Iran, as well as a number of less overt actors from the global south, hoping to capitalize on rising geopolitical tensions. This coalition is largely informal, but its influence is acutely felt: it provides political and material support for Russian aggression, supplying artillery shells, drones, and other military equipment and technologies. In addition to the military sphere, it spends much energy on economic, cyber, and information warfare, and other subversive activities. Its goal is to destabilize the world order.
Russia and its allies enjoy a huge advantage. They are fighting with brute force to create a new global order, while many in the West are primarily seeking to use soft power to preserve the old one, which emerged from the Cold War. It has long been known that those who rely on force to implement the new have a significant advantage over supporters of the old, who, by and large, voluntarily impose restrictions on the means to achieve their goals.
At the same time, if Russia fails to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield, its global goals will be significantly undermined. Strengthening Ukraine’s defense and security capabilities, as well as ensuring the resilience of society and the state, is the easiest and cheapest way for the West to stop Russia and other revisionist states.
Today, Ukraine is capable of repelling Russian aggression with adequate military and economic support from the West. This support will remain effective if it is long-term (until Russian aggression ceases) and comprehensive (including political, economic, military and intelligence support, as well as assistance in countering cyberwarfare and disinformation).
The most recent example of this approach is the signing of the Security Cooperation Agreement between Ukraine and the United Kingdom on January 12. Excluding the Baltic states, which are now part of the EU and NATO, this was the third such agreement between a former Soviet republic and another country. The first two – between Turkey and Azerbaijan in 2021 and between France and Armenia in 2023 – had some impact on the South Caucasus, but did not change the rules of the game.
The agreement between Ukraine and the UK could be far more significant. It is the first of its kind to touch the core of the former Russian Empire; Putin considers Ukraine an integral part of “historical” Russia. It is the first treaty between Ukraine and a major power to enshrine an emerging geopolitical reality in a legal agreement. It marks a profound shift in the West’s approach to Russia’s concept of its “spheres of influence.” The subdued reaction of the British media to the agreement shows how normal and routine Anglo-Ukrainian defense and security relations have become in the public consciousness.
Now, as throughout history, the UK can serve as an example for others. The agreement signed on 12 January could pave the way for similar agreements with other Western countries. Eleven of them are at various stages of negotiating such agreements with Ukraine. The G7 joint declaration on support for Ukraine, signed at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023, is clearly bearing fruit.
Security cooperation agreements are gradually bringing Ukraine into the Western security space without requiring the presence of Western troops on Ukrainian soil. They are accustoming the world to Ukraine's participation in the alliance. Such agreements are creating the basis for Ukraine's accession to NATO, a decision that was made in Bucharest in 2008. This is the best guarantee of security not only for Ukraine, but also for all of Eastern Europe.
By signing the security agreement, the UK has taken a step towards deterring the Russians. When others follow suit, their joint efforts will have a major impact on Russia’s aggressive war and future ambitions. Ukraine needs such a joint effort to ensure victory. The long road is made up of many steps.
