In 2024, food prices in Ukraine increased by 20%, and this trend will continue in 2025. The reasons for the price increase include inflation, logistics costs, the energy crisis, and the impact of excise taxes on fuel.
The main reasons for the price increase
- Inflation:
Inflation in Ukraine exceeded 12% in 2024. It became a key factor in the increase in food prices. - The war and its consequences:
The lack of personnel and the need to invest in new equipment forced farmers and processors to look for alternative solutions, which increased their costs. - Energy crisis:
A power outage in the summer of 2024 forced manufacturers to use generators. This significantly increased the cost of fuel and lubricants. - Fuel excise taxes:
A law was passed in September 2024 to increase fuel excise taxes. Ukrainians began to feel its impact in 2025 due to higher prices for gasoline and diesel fuel, and increased logistics costs.
How does this affect the cost of bread?
According to Denys Marchuk, Deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, the price of bread depends not only on the cost of flour, which is only 30% of its cost. The main components of the price are the costs of energy resources, logistics, and production equipment.
Bread price dynamics in 2024:
- In January, a kilogram of bread cost 44.07 UAH.
- In November, the price increased to UAH 50.98.
Forecast for 2025:
Prices may increase by 1.5-2% each month, which will total over 20% per year.
What else affects prices?
- Dollar to hryvnia exchange rate: many components for production are purchased abroad, so the devaluation of the hryvnia automatically increases the cost of products.
- Logistics: Due to rising fuel prices, the cost of transporting goods is also increasing.
The factors that influenced prices in 2024 will remain relevant this year. Further increases in the cost of products, in particular bread, are inevitable unless comprehensive measures are taken to stabilize the economy.
Ukrainians should prepare for the fact that everyday purchases will continue to become more expensive, and the issue of accessibility of basic products will become increasingly acute.
