The founder of the Prime logistics group of companies, Dmitry Lyushkin, spoke about the current state of the fuel market at Ukrainian gas stations. He predicts that due to economic difficulties and the adoption of a law on increasing excise tax, the quality of fuel may deteriorate, and there will be problems with its sale.
According to Lyushkin, Ukrainian gas stations are going through hard times. Ukraine's economy is experiencing a significant downturn, which is leading to a decrease in demand for fuel. The reduction in the number of freight vehicles on the roads, the emigration of the population, especially men who avoid mobilization, and women who have left for Europe, create additional challenges for the business. The lack of customers is forcing gas stations to look for ways to survive, including potentially illegal methods.
One possible response to economic hardship is a decline in fuel quality. Leushkin warns that some gas stations may switch to selling so-called “junk” fuel, which is low-quality fuel. This could be a result of an attempt to cut costs and avoid price increases, which would scare away the last customers.
Another possible response is tax evasion. Leushkin suggests that gas station chains could reduce the use of cash registers or resort to tax manipulation. This could include falsifying reports and other illegal actions to reduce tax liabilities.
On July 18, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted a bill to increase the excise tax on fuel, which will come into force on September 1, 2024. Excise tax rates will gradually increase until 2028, when they will reach the level set in the European Union. This increase in excise taxes, according to Lyushkin, will lead to an increase in the prices of gasoline, diesel fuel, and gas.
Leushkin noted that the increase in fuel prices will occur in two stages. Already in September 2024, gasoline will increase in price by UAH 1.5 per liter, diesel by UAH 2, and gas by UAH 5. This increase will be gradual, since at the beginning of September, gas stations will still have fuel purchased at the old prices.
