On August 26, 2024, Russia launched a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine, which analysts and military experts believe could signal the start of a new, intense cycle of attacks. According to estimates by blogger and military analyst Roman Shrike, Russia may be planning to use up to 120 Kh-101 missiles per month. This major increase in the intensity of the attacks has the potential to significantly affect the situation on the front line and the lives of civilians in Ukraine.
Let's remember the cycles of Russian shelling.
They usually follow this principle:
- Increased attacks (about 2 months),
- Attacks in the “as much as they produced, as much they launched” mode (3-5 months),
- Break for missile accumulation (about 2 months).
Then repeat.
The 1st period of attacks was from October 10, 2022 to March 9, 2023 (5 months). Then there was a break of 1 month and 3 weeks.
The 2nd period is from April 28 to September 25, 2023 (5 months). Then a break of 2 months and 2 weeks.
The 3rd period is from December 8, 2023 to July 11, 2024 (7 months). Then there is a break of 1 month and 2 weeks.
And today, the 4th cycle began with a new attack.
Presumably, we should then expect 1.5-2 months of attacks with a “doubled” number of missiles, and then a new transition to the “as many as we produced, as many as we launched” regime.
Let me remind you that I am counting the missiles that are the basis of mass attacks: the X-101 and the Caliber.
You can sum up the number of missiles used throughout the entire attack cycle, divide by the length of the cycle, and thus understand the level of production.
According to my estimates, during the 2nd cycle of attacks, the Russian Federation produced about 60 Kh-101 missiles and 35 Kalibr missiles per month on average.
During the 3rd cycle, there were an average of 61 Kh-101 missiles per month, and the statistics for the Calibers broke down because they were used rarely and unevenly.
Based on this, we can expect that in the next few months about 120 X-101s will be fired per month, and then they will switch to 60 missiles per month.
It is difficult to predict the frequency of attacks, since the concept of the Rashists is constantly changing.
