The Ukrainian Armed Forces have surprised the world with their invasion of Russia's Kursk region, in one of the most unexpected and bold moves of the war. But how long can Ukraine hold on to the territory? According to Professor Michael Clarke, a Sky News security and defence analyst, the military manoeuvre is not part of Ukraine's long-term strategy and is likely to last only a few weeks.
Professor Clark believes that the main reason for the limited time of detention is the pressure that this fact creates on the Kremlin. For Vladimir Putin, preserving the territorial integrity of Russia is a key aspect of his political survival. According to the analyst, the Russian leadership must clearly demonstrate that “Russian land is sacred” and that an invasion of Russian territory will not go without a strong response. Given that Russia has not suffered such an invasion since 1941, this incident is a real challenge for Putin, who cannot afford to show weakness at this moment.
On the other hand, Clark emphasizes that Ukraine does not need to hold the area for a long time. The political effect has already been achieved: the Ukrainian invasion created a new front and demonstrated Kyiv's strength and determination. This move attracted the attention of the international community and strengthened support from the West.
Clark notes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not set themselves the goal of holding the Kursk region for a long time. In his opinion, Ukrainian troops will consider their mission accomplished if they can hold the captured territory for a month or six weeks. During this time, they can try to use the situation to the maximum to strengthen their positions in the war, after which they will probably plan to withdraw their forces from the region.
The Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region is an important tactical move, which, however, is unlikely to develop into a long-term occupation. Professor Michael Clarke is convinced that Ukraine's main task in this maneuver was to create political and military pressure on Russia, which has already borne fruit. However, realistic forecasts indicate that the holding of this territory is unlikely to last more than a few weeks.
