October 2023 has been the most difficult month for Ukraine due to a record number of Russian drones attacking from the air. Compared to previous months, when the number of drones did not exceed a thousand, in September there were 1,301, and in October there were 2,023. As Forbes notes, Russia is trying to use these drones to cut off electricity in Ukraine, creating conditions for subjugating the population in the cold winter.
Attacks on energy infrastructure
According to a report by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission, last year's Russian attacks targeted energy networks, while this year's campaign is focused on electricity generation facilities. As of June 2023, 73% of Ukraine's thermal power units were out of order. In such a situation, the losses for Ukraine could have more strategic consequences than a slow Russian ground offensive.
The Washington Post warns that the destruction of energy infrastructure could lead to “20 or more hours of darkness per day” in the cold winter, which could force Ukraine to negotiate on unfavorable terms.
Protection methods
Unfortunately, Ukraine does not have enough defenses, such as Patriot missiles, but is finding alternative methods to combat drones. For example, the Shaheds, which usually move slowly, become easy targets for helicopters, which can destroy them with cannon fire. Helicopters have already recorded the shooting down of six Shaheds.
Electronic warfare has also proven to be an important component of defense. According to ShahedTracker, 1,185 Shaheds were shot down by conventional weapons in October, while 738 were shot down by electronic warfare. The use of electronic warfare is a significant advantage, as it is practically free to use.
New technologies and drone modernization
In response to the ongoing threats, Russia is modernizing its drones, introducing new technologies such as Starlink satellite communications to improve the stability of communications, allowing for precision strikes. Among the Russian drones, smaller models have appeared that act as decoys to distract Ukrainian defenses.
With limited Western aid, Ukraine has focused on developing its own drone industry, which has begun producing interceptor drones. In particular, Shahed Killer drones, such as the Sting quadcopter, have already been successfully used to destroy Russian reconnaissance drones.
