The International Monetary Fund has published a forecast in which it expressed concerns about the possible prolongation of the war in Ukraine until mid-2026. This is expected under a negative scenario for the development of the situation, for which military actions do not subside due to further escalation of the conflict and the achievement of stability in diplomatic regulation.
According to the base scenario, the war will end by the end of 2025.
The negative scenario “implies a longer and more intense shock to economic activity, budgetary needs, and the balance of payments” of Ukraine.
The fund also expects Ukraine's economy to slow in 2025, in any case, "due to an increasingly tight labor market, the consequences of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and uncertainty about the ongoing war.".
The IMF supports raising taxes in Ukraine and strengthening policies on "domestic revenue mobilization" due to high inflation risks.
