Ukrainian businesses are forecasting a significant increase in consumer prices over the next 12 months. According to company executives, inflation will reach 11.4%, which is almost twice the official forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine. This is stated in a new report by the NBU.
Business cites military actions as the biggest reason for price increases — almost 80% of surveyed business leaders believe so. They emphasize that the war creates prolonged economic uncertainty, increases logistics costs, and affects raw material prices.
Another important factor is the fluctuation of the hryvnia exchange rate, which was mentioned by 69.8% of respondents (in the second quarter there were 67.3%). The growth of expectations for price increases on world markets has been going on for the fifth quarter in a row.
At the same time, only 22.6% of business leaders noted that tax changes will affect prices — the lowest figure in the last year.
The State Statistics Service confirms the trend of gradual growth in core inflation. In September 2025, it was 1.3% compared to August and 11.0% in annual terms.
The highest price increases over the year were seen for eggs (+50.9%), fruits (+30.4%), and sunflower oil (+28.1%). At the same time, due to the harvest in September, prices of vegetables (–10.6%) and fruits (–11.8%) fell seasonally.
