The possibility of an accidental nuclear conflict between Ukraine and Russia: could the war become nuclear?

With the outbreak of Russia's war against Ukraine, the issue of nuclear security has once again become acute, and any escalation could lead to catastrophic consequences. An important role in this context is played by the possibility of accidental strikes or mistakes, which could not only increase tensions but also turn a local conflict into a global war.

At least 14 Russian nuclear storage sites are within reach of Ukrainian missiles and drones.

Although the author of the article writes that “there is no indication that Ukrainian forces deliberately targeted nuclear warhead storage sites,” he notes that “the warheads could have been accidentally hit – or deliberately attacked or stolen.” There have been previous flights within 100 km of these sites.

“Even more dangerous is the possibility that a Ukrainian missile strike or territorial seizure could lead to chaos in the operation of the storage facility, allowing attackers to seize nuclear warheads or inadvertently provoke an escalation of the nuclear conflict from Russia,” the publication writes.

Russia should have removed its nuclear warheads from these storage sites when hostilities began, but it has not. Perhaps Putin believes this would be a sign of weakness. Or perhaps the Russian military fears that the West will interpret this as preparation for a nuclear attack, provoking a preemptive NATO strike.

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