Amidst claims of a possible Russian offensive on Zaporizhzhia, experts assess the situation as an attempt to create panic rather than a real threat. Despite the enemy's activity in the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukrainian military and analysts agree: the Russians lack the resources for a large-scale offensive.
According to Ivan Tymochko, head of the Land Forces Reservists Council, the Russian occupiers are facing numerous difficulties in the region. While local attacks and attempts to capture a few villages are possible, this is more of an information campaign than a strategic initiative.
“When the Russians advanced a few kilometers in the Vovchansky direction, the information violence created the illusion of a large-scale offensive. Something similar is happening now with Zaporizhia,” notes Tymochko.
The key problem for the Russians remains the so-called Robotyn offensive — a breakthrough by the Ukrainian Armed Forces into Russian defensive positions. This forces the occupiers to constantly look for weak spots in the defense of the Ukrainian troops, which significantly depletes their resources.
Although Russian forces have uninterrupted logistics thanks to rail connections along the Azov Sea coast, the narrow supply zone is under constant attack from Ukrainian artillery and missile systems. As Tymochko notes, this complicates supplies not only in Zaporizhia, but also in temporarily occupied Crimea.
The Economist reported on Russia’s preparations for a “bold” offensive on Zaporizhzhia. However, according to Vladislav Seleznyov, former spokesman for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, even with the 90,000-strong “Dnepr” group, the real prospects for an offensive are limited. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively strengthening their positions around Zaporizhzhia, which minimizes the risks.
The Ukrainian command does not ignore this direction. Intelligence and defense forces are constantly monitoring the situation, taking preventive measures. According to Tymochko, these actions may look imperceptible, but their effectiveness is beyond doubt.
“Critics mistakenly believe that training should be accompanied by massive movements of equipment. However, modern warfare is, first and foremost, about competent strategy and fire control, not showy maneuvers,” he emphasizes.
