As of the beginning of 2026, 5.6 million Ukrainian refugees are outside Ukraine. This data is provided by the Center for Economic Strategy in the fifth wave of its research. The main conclusion of the analysts is that, despite the preservation of the intentions of some citizens to return, a significant number of Ukrainians have already begun to build a new life abroad.
According to the study, 4 million of the 5.6 million citizens left Ukraine via the western borders. In total, from the beginning of the full-scale war until the end of 2025, the border was crossed 60.4 million times to leave, while 56.3 million to enter. This difference reflects the number of people who left and did not return. At the same time, analysts emphasize that this data does not take into account those Ukrainians who left the country through Russia or Belarus.
In 2025, the pace of departures began to slow down. The difference between departures and returns was 34% smaller than a year earlier. This, according to researchers, means that the mass panic wave of migration is behind us. Instead, decisions to move are increasingly being made not because of an immediate threat, but for reasons of safety, work and long-term life prospects.
The portrait of Ukrainian refugees has also changed noticeably. Among them, the share of young people is growing. Currently, 56% of Ukrainians abroad are people under 35, and two-thirds are of working age. On the other hand, the share of people over 45 has decreased, which may indicate their partial return home. Separately, analysts draw attention to the fact that children make up almost a third of all Ukrainian refugees, and women - 56%.
The study emphasizes that Ukrainian refugees are not a homogeneous group. Among them, at least four main types are distinguished. Some are classic war refugees who left due to an immediate threat and retain a high willingness to return. Others have a strong connection to Ukraine, but have not yet made a final decision. At the same time, more and more people are already forming a new life trajectory abroad, gradually integrating into new societies. There is a separate economically vulnerable group for whom the choice between returning and leaving depends primarily on circumstances, rather than desire.
The greatest willingness to return is demonstrated by classic war refugees. According to the CES, 63% of representatives of this group said that they definitely or rather plan to return. However, the overall picture remains restrained. As of now, only 43% of Ukrainians abroad are considering returning, while 36% do not plan to do so.
At the same time, the key condition for return remains security. Almost 80% of those who allow return are ready to do so only after the final end of the war. Moreover, it is not just about reducing the intensity of hostilities, but about signing a document that guarantees stability and will allow, in particular, the resumption of civil aviation flights over Ukraine.
CES analysts have modeled three scenarios for the development of events after the end of the war. According to the pessimistic scenario, only 1.3 million people will return to Ukraine, and 3 million will remain abroad. According to the baseline scenario, 1.6 million will return, and 2.7 million will remain outside the country. According to the optimistic scenario, 2.2 million Ukrainians may return home. In any of these scenarios, a significant part of citizens will remain abroad.
A separate factor is the end of the temporary protection regime in the EU in 2027. As the study shows, this will not mean automatic mass return. On the contrary, 21% of Ukrainians already have other grounds for residence abroad, another 26% plan to obtain them, and only 23% are ready to return to Ukraine. Another 27% intend to look for other opportunities to stay outside the country.
The study also refutes the widespread assumption that Ukrainian refugees live mainly on social benefits. In fact, their main source of income is already work: 50% of their income comes from salary or business, while social assistance accounts for only 17%. This indicates the increasing integration of Ukrainians into the labor markets of host countries.
The largest number of Ukrainian refugees currently live in Germany — 23%, and also in Poland — 19.5%. At the same time, younger Ukrainians are more likely to choose Germany, while middle-aged people are more likely to stay in Poland. This indicates the formation of different models of life abroad — from temporary stay to actual emigration.
As a result, analysts conclude: after the war, Ukraine will have to not just wait for the return of its citizens, but actually compete for them. Security, work, housing, education for children, and a sense of stability will become decisive factors. Otherwise, a significant part of the current refugees may turn into a new permanent Ukrainian diaspora.
Recall that we previously wrote that the structure of Ukrainian refugees in the EU has changed for the first time - adult men began to predominate among new recipients of temporary protection, which indicates a change in the wave of migration.
