KYIV – Despite promising international partners that Ukraine can handle the fighting if it is given the necessary weapons and other support, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his top military command have so far failed to develop a clear plan to draft or recruit the many thousands of new soldiers critically needed to defend against Russia’s ongoing attacks.
Zelensky’s failure to reach political consensus on a mobilization strategy — despite months of warnings about a severe shortage of qualified troops on the front — has deeply divided the Ukrainian parliament and Ukrainian society at large. It has left the army relying on a recruitment drive and has sown panic among military-age men, some of whom have gone into hiding, worried that they will be drafted into an ill-equipped army and sent to certain death, given that aid for Ukraine remains stalled in Washington.
The problem of how to replenish the ranks has presented Zelensky with perhaps the biggest challenge to his leadership since the invasion began in February 2022. The lack of a clear mobilization strategy — or even agreement on how many more troops Ukraine needs — contributed to Zelensky’s dismissal of his senior general in February, but the new commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, has yet to provide any new clarity.
Syrsky was tasked with reviewing the existing armed forces to find more combat-ready troops after Zelensky’s office recently announced that of the 1 million mobilized people, only about 300,000 were fighting on the front lines. But nearly a month after his promotion, no one in the military leadership or the presidential administration has explained where those 700,000 are — or what they’re doing.
Ukrainian lawmakers say the lack of a unified message from the president and the military has added to the confusion about next steps.
“I don’t know why Zelensky or his team are still trying to convince society that everything is always fine,” said Solomiya Bobrovska, a lawmaker from the liberal opposition party Holos. “It’s not true, especially in the army.”.
The decline in the number of combat-ready Ukrainian troops is now a strategic crisis, at least in part responsible for the recent retreat from the eastern town of Avdiivka and surrounding villages, where Ukrainian forces were vastly outnumbered.
Oleksiy Bezhevets, an advisor to the Ministry of Defense on manning issues, said that civilians of combat age must accept the fact that "there is no time to sit at home.".
“It is quite possible that the Russians will soon move much closer if no one stops them,” Bezhevets said. If, in addition to “lack of ammunition, weapons, shells and so on, we lack personnel, it is a tragedy,” he added.
But after two years of total war, the sense of public urgency that spurred new troops onto the battlefield and fueled Ukraine’s early successes has vanished. Many soldiers are wounded or exhausted.
The last Ukrainian parking lot in Avdiivka and its "road of death"
During this time, men between the ages of 18 and 60 were prohibited from leaving the country, and men over the age of 27 were subject to conscription, with some exceptions. Civilians between the ages of 18 and 27 could register themselves. Parliament has now spent months in heated debate on a bill that would change the mobilization process and broaden the scope of the bill, in particular by lowering the age limit to 25.
Over 4,000 amendments have been made to the mobilization bill, and some MPs see it as Zelensky's attempt to shift responsibility for inevitably unpopular decisions onto parliament.
“It’s time to start an adult conversation with society and not be afraid of it,” Bobrovskaya said. “This is not 2022, when emotions have taken over.”.
Zelensky has long sought to control public reporting of martial law to preserve public morale. Last week, he publicly announced the death toll of Ukrainian soldiers for the first time, saying that 31,000 people had been killed since February 2022 — a number that cannot be independently verified.
Zelensky also faces growing pessimism at home and abroad about Ukraine’s chances of holding off Russia’s pressure without help from the United States. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Kyiv) has refused to consider legislation that would provide Ukraine with about $60 billion in aid.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) leaves the White House after meeting with President Biden last week. (Andrew Garnick/AP)
“It’s time for serious conversations with society — serious and honest conversations and an explanation of what we need to do without artificial bravery,” said Rep. Volodymyr Aryev of the opposition European Solidarity party.
Bobrovska supports the proposed amendments to the bill, which would demobilize servicemen who have already served long periods on the front lines. According to her, “the only way to return is wounded or killed.”.
