While the capture of Pokrovskoye seems inevitable to many observers, control of the city’s ruins will not give Russia a significant military advantage for a further offensive, writes columnist Mark Champion in a column for Bloomberg. In his assessment, the combat cost of each captured “medium-sized city” has already proven to be extremely high for Moscow, and the outcome of the war will be determined not by the city’s trophies, but by the ability to continue fighting.
In a column for Bloomberg, Mark Champion explains that after the failure of the 2022 blitzkrieg, Russia has effectively chosen a different approach: taking individual, medium-sized settlements in stages. Targets like Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and now perhaps Pokrovsk have had political and moral significance for the Kremlin, but each has cost both sides enormous human and material losses.
The author emphasizes that the capture of Pokrovsk will not mean an open path for an offensive on other areas of Donbas: a new line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine passes behind the city, and geographically, control over the ruins does not guarantee further maneuver or rapid advancement. Champion draws a parallel with Avdiivka: even after its capture, it took Russian forces almost two more years to advance only tens of kilometers - while the enemy's human losses increased many times over.
The main factor, according to the columnist, remains not specific urban strongholds, but the general endurance and will of the parties to continue the fight. If Kyiv and its partners can maintain supplies, mobilization and morale, and Ukraine can maintain effective resistance, then the loss of individual settlements will not have a decisive strategic significance. For the Kremlin, each “success” is incredibly expensive in terms of human resources and equipment.
The author also draws attention to the political dimension of the event: although the military effect may be limited, the very fact of the city's fall could become a propaganda and political trump card for Moscow. Champion warns that Putin could use such "achievements" to convince Western politicians — including Donald Trump — of the alleged collapse of Ukrainian stability and the need for other approaches in relations with Russia. This already has its own risks in the diplomatic and informational plane.
Pokrovsk, even if it comes under Russian control, is unlikely to be a turning point in the war: its military cost is too high and its strategic prospects are limited. Instead, the real significance of this episode will lie in the realm of morale, propaganda, and diplomatic influence—factors that may be delayed in time but will require a vigilant response from Kyiv and its partners.
