The Ukrainian group near the village of Nevelske, located near the outskirts of Donetsk, faces a serious risk of being surrounded. According to military experts, the Russian army is approximately 5 km away from shutting down this potential "boiler", which could seriously complicate the situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The situation here began to deteriorate at the end of August, when the Russian troops, breaking into Ukrainian defenses near Pokrovsk and Selidovoy, suddenly turned their movement to the south.
Rapidly moving towards the city of Kurakhove, they began to cut off the Ukrainian garrison located further east - between Nevelsky, Hirnyk and Krasnohorivka.
In order to close this "cauldron", the army of the Russian Federation simultaneously advances from the north and southeast. As of September 16, the "throat" of this ledge is about 5 km.
Russian military telegram channels have reported several times that Ukraine has withdrawn its garrison to avoid encirclement. But this, apparently, never happened.
The Ukrainian Air Force asked the spokesmen of the Tavria and Khortytsia operational groups to comment on the situation near Nevelskyi.
How to avoid the environment
Ukrainian military analyst of the "Information Resistance" group Kostyantyn Mashovets calls the situation in this area "threatening" that could turn into "catastrophic".
According to his data, the Russian army from the southern face of this salient advanced in the directions from Krasnohorivka to the villages of Gostre and Oleksandropol.
On the northern front, the Russian Armed Forces have already occupied the village of Halytsynivka and are fighting for Zhelanne Pershe and Ukrainian.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on September 14 that it had captured the village of Zhelanne Pershe. Ukrainian sources do not confirm this yet.
The loss of this settlement will mean that almost all of the main supply routes of the Ukrainian group near Nevelsky will be under the control of the enemy. It will be possible to leave the encirclement only by field roads, at the same time crossing the Vovcha River.
"If the enemy continues to advance on this stretch, it may well become catastrophic for the entire flank of our group, which operates southeast of Pokrovsk," Mashovets emphasizes.
At the same time, he notes that this idea of the Russian Federation "is not a secret for the Ukrainian command." As long as the Armed Forces continue to hold the Girnyk – Zhelanne Druge – Oleksandropil – Kurakhivka area, this ensures the stability of their defense along the Vovcha River in the area of crossings, the expert emphasizes.
Photo credit: Getty Images
That is, it makes it possible not only to supply the group near Nevelsky, but also to quickly withdraw it if necessary.
Moreover, Mashovets writes that the advanced units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already begun to withdraw from this bridgehead in an organized and gradual manner, conducting rearguard battles with the enemy.
Earlier, the analyst wrote about the huge disproportion of the forces of the parties on this part of the front. According to him, the Nevel bridgehead on the Ukrainian side holds only a few "incomplete" battalions. They are opposed by the army corps of the Russian Federation (may number from 15 to 30 thousand soldiers).
Accordingly, it is extremely difficult to hold positions in such conditions. But it is easier to remove the garrison, which is small in number, from the environment.
What is the plan of the Russian army in Donbas
The Ukrainian command says that the Russian Federation has not abandoned plans to attack Pokrovsk and is now engaged in strengthening the flanks of its group.
"They are trying to strengthen the flanks in order to get closer to Pokrovsk, to semi-surround it, and then start to wipe the city to the ground," Major Serhii Tsehotsky from the 59th Brigade told BBC correspondent Abduzhalil Abdurasulov.
The author of the photo, 59 OMBR named after Yakov Handzyuk
Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Demianenko, who commands the tank battalion of the 110th brigade, also says that Russian troops are now advancing from the flanks, instead of a direct assault on Pokrovsk.
However, he claims that now the Russians are mostly focused on the southern flank - this is the Kurakhiv direction.
Russian troops attack Ukrainian positions in small groups and often without armored vehicles, the military says.
"They send two or three people who try to get to a certain point on the field," Tsehotskyi explains. - Then others also try to reach this point. And when 10-15 people gather there, they try to attack us."
Photo credit: Getty Images
The Kurakhovo area is difficult for both defense and offensive because it is flat, says Nazar Voytenkov from the 33rd Brigade.
"We are constantly shelling the fields. The Russians are losing transport and people here."
According to him, his brigade is successfully holding positions on the front line.
Kurakhove is connected to Pokrovsk by roads that are part of the infrastructure for the movement of troops and supplies on the front line.
If the Russians take this city, they can go north to attack Pokrovsk from a new direction, says DeepState analyst Roman Pohorily.
Another possibility is that they can attack Ukrainian troops in Ugledar from the rear, he adds. This is a city on the southern part of the front line in Donbas, which the Russians have been trying to capture since the beginning of their full-scale invasion.
At the beginning of autumn, the Russian army increased its pressure on the Vugledarskyi direction, captured settlements to the east and west of the city and is close to limiting the supply routes of the Ukrainian garrison.
