According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the authorities of the Russian Federation are trying to use Ukraine's accusation of involvement in the Crocus shooting to justify their continued war. Experts note that such statements contribute to the Kremlin's long-term efforts to support its full-scale invasion of Ukraine by distorting the real situation and trying to portray Ukraine as a threat to Russia.
The report notes that the Russian authorities and their ultra-nationalist supporters are ignoring the obvious threat posed by the operations of the Islamic State terrorist group in Russia, and instead focusing on false accusations of Ukraine's complicity in the terrorist attack.
ISW experts point out that such a strategy allows the Kremlin to maintain a certain level of support among ethnic minorities to mobilize resources in the war in Ukraine. They believe that for the Kremlin, the informational value of accusing Ukraine of shooting at Crocus outweighs the risks to internal security and possible civilian casualties that may arise from the radical threat of Islamic extremists inside the country.
According to experts, the Kremlin may believe that even with such risks, the informational benefit from accusing Ukraine is worth the cost of any possible consequences.
