KYIV – Despite his promises to international partners that Ukraine can handle hostilities if it is given the necessary weapons and other support, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi and his senior military command have so far failed to come up with a clear plan to draft or recruit many thousands of new soldiers. critically needed to defend against Russia's constant attacks.
Zelenskyi's failure to reach a political consensus on a mobilization strategy — despite months of warnings about a serious shortage of qualified troops at the front — has caused deep divisions in the Ukrainian parliament and in Ukrainian society in general. This has left the army relying on a recruitment failure and sowed panic among men of military age, some of whom have gone into hiding, worried they will be conscripted into an ill-equipped army and sent to certain death, given that aid for Ukraine remains at a standstill in Washington
The problem of how to replenish the ranks has presented Zelensky with perhaps the biggest challenge to his leadership since the invasion began in February 2022. The lack of a clear mobilization strategy — or even agreement on how many more troops Ukraine needs — contributed to Zelenskyi's firing of his senior general in February, but new commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has yet to provide new clarity.
Syrskyi was tasked with reviewing the existing armed forces to find more combat-ready troops after Zelenskyi's office recently announced that only about 300,000 of the 1 million mobilized were fighting on the front lines. But almost a month after his promotion, no one in the military leadership or the presidential administration explained where these 700,000 were and what they were doing.
Ukrainian lawmakers say the lack of a unified message from the president and the military has added to confusion about next steps.
"I don't know why Zelenskyi or his team are still trying to convince society that everything is always fine," said Solomiya Bobrovska, a deputy from the liberal opposition party "Holos". "It's not like that, especially in the military."
Ukraine's downsizing is now a strategic crisis, at least in part the cause of the recent retreat from the eastern city of Avdiivka and surrounding villages, where Ukrainian forces were heavily outnumbered.
Oleksiy Bezhevets, adviser to the Ministry of Defense on recruitment issues, said that civilians of military age should come to terms with the fact that "there is no time to sit at home."
"It is quite possible that the Russians will soon come much closer if no one stops them," Bezhevets said. If, in addition to "the lack of ammunition, weapons, shells and so on, we have a lack of personnel, this is a tragedy," he added.
But after two years of total war, the sense of public urgency that prompted new troops to the battlefield and contributed to Ukraine's first successes has disappeared. Many soldiers are wounded or exhausted.
The last Ukrainian parking lot in Avdiivka and its "road of death"
All this time, men between the ages of 18 and 60 were prohibited from leaving the country, and men over the age of 27, with some exceptions, were subject to conscription. Civilians aged 18 to 27 can register independently. Parliament has now spent months in heated debate over a bill that would change the mobilization process and expand the scope of the bill, including by lowering the age bracket to 25.
More than 4,000 amendments have been made to the mobilization bill, and some deputies see it as an attempt by Zelensky to shift responsibility for inevitably unpopular decisions to the parliament.
"It's time to start an adult conversation with society and not be afraid of it," said Bobrovska. "This is not 2022, when emotions have taken over."
For a long time, Zelensky tried to control public messages about martial law in order to preserve public morals. Last week, he publicly announced the death toll of Ukrainian troops for the first time, saying that 31,000 people had been killed since February 2022 — a figure that could not be independently verified.
Zelensky also faces growing pessimism at home and abroad about Ukraine's chances of containing Russian pressure without help from the United States. Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson (Republican) refused to consider the legislation, which provides for the allocation of about 60 billion US dollars to Ukraine.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) leaves the White House after meeting with President Biden last week.
(Andrew Harnik/AP) "It's time for serious conversations with society — serious and honest conversations and an explanation of what we should do without artificial bravery," said Volodymyr Aryev, a member of parliament from the opposition European Solidarity party.
Bobrovska supports the proposed amendments to the draft law, which provide for the demobilization of military personnel who have already completed long service on the front lines. According to her, "the only way to come back is wounded or killed."
