In 2019, Volodymyr Zelenskyy became president for a five-year term. If he is not re-elected or re-elected, his term will end in the spring of 2024, after the inauguration of a new head of state. May 20 marks exactly five years since Zelenskyy became president.
For the Ukrainian leader himself, May 20 will be a normal working day, although it may be tense due to the situation at the front.
In connection with the escalation of hostilities, Zelenskyi canceled all international visits and held a meeting of the Commander-in-Chief Staff in Kharkiv. He expressed confidence that the Ukrainian troops will be able to restrain the Russian offensive. Next in the president's plans are preparations for the June "peace summit", continuing the construction of fortifications, strengthening the Ukrainian army and changing the situation at the front.
Instead of looking at next Monday as Zelensky's last day as the president of Ukraine, Russian propaganda and some Ukrainian opponents of his government will try to present this day as the moment when he becomes the "expired president" and Ukraine - a state without legitimate authority.
According to the Kyiv interlocutors of the BBC, we are currently witnessing the largest comprehensive information operation of the Russian special services in history, which is aimed at changing the legitimate government in Ukraine and defeating Kyiv by military means.
The BBC tried to analyze the "problem of May 20" and understand its essence, as well as determine what changes await Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Ukrainian society and the state as a whole after this date.
The problem lies in the conflict between several articles of the Ukrainian Constitution.
On the one hand, the Basic Law stipulates that the term of office of the President of Ukraine is five years. On the other hand, the Constitution stipulates that the president remains in office until the election and inauguration of the next head of state. On the third hand, the Constitution expressly prohibits holding elections to the Verkhovna Rada during martial law, but does not contain prohibitions on holding presidential elections.
So there are people who interpret this legal conflict in this way.
If the presidential term is five years, then May 20, 2024 will be the last day of Volodymyr Zelenskyi's presidency. He was supposed to be replaced by the winner of the presidential elections, but they were not appointed, although the Constitution allowed them to be held.
However, if this has already happened, then it must be recognized that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will cease to be the legitimate president on May 21. Therefore, he should resign and transfer his powers, as stipulated in the Constitution, to the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada. And he, in our case, Ruslan Stefanchuk, a member of the Servant of the People presidential party, should remain acting. the president until the new head of state is elected in the elections, regardless of when they will be held.
Speaker of the Parliament, as Acting president, not a novelty for Ukraine, supporters of the legal theory remind. In February 2014, after the escape of Viktor Yanukovych from Kyiv, the parliament elected Oleksandr Turchynov as speaker, who served as head of state for more than three months, until the inauguration of Petro Poroshenko.
Among those who doubt the legitimacy of President Volodymyr Zelenskyi after May 20, there are various personalities, from Zelenskyi's former party colleague, disgraced People's Deputy Oleksandr Dubinsky, to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The only thing that unites them is that they are opponents of the Ukrainian leader.
Opponents of this theory are convinced that the issue of the president's legitimacy after May 20 is empty. The simplest argument they give is that no Ukrainian president has been in office for exactly five years day in and day out. Despite this, there were no doubts about the legitimacy of any of the Ukrainian presidents in this regard.
Some interviewees of the BBC admit that the wording of the Constitution can indeed leave room for different interpretations. In a recent interview with the BBC, the Minister of Justice of Ukraine, Denys Malyuska, expressed his suspicion that the authors of the Constitution did not imagine that Ukraine could find itself in a state of full-scale war, so they approached the relevant provisions not seriously.
Roman Bezsmertny, one of the authors of the Constitution, the former vice-prime minister and ambassador of Ukraine to Belarus, and now a university teacher, told the BBC that the best legal minds were fiercely debating the wording of the country's basic law.
If you analyze the norms of the Constitution systemically, and not separately, then it becomes clear both the intention of the authors and the accuracy of the chosen wording, adds Bezsmertny. They faced two big tasks. First, to avoid the interruption of power, the formation of a "power vacuum". That is why the Constitution stipulates that the president remains in office until the inauguration of a successor, even if he has not yet been elected.
It is also necessary to mention the norm that prohibits the current president from transferring his powers to other persons or bodies.
The second task is to prevent the possibility of usurpation of power in crisis situations. To avoid this, the authors of the Constitution strengthened the role of the Verkhovna Rada by including in the Basic Law a ban on parliamentary elections during martial law.
Therefore, the Constitution orders Zelensky to remain in the post of president until his successor is elected in legitimate elections.
Whoever claims that the Constitution leaves room for different interpretations in this matter can refer to the current law on the legal regime of martial law. This law clearly prohibits amendments to the Constitution, referendums and elections of any level during martial law.
This provision of this law is confirmed by the CEC, justifying the lack of grounds for announcing presidential elections in 2024.
Even the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, Ruslan Stefanchuk, who was supposed to become acting of the president after Zelenskyi, said that he has no doubts about the legitimacy of the president even after May 20.
Despite all explanations and interpretations, the "May 20 problem" continues to exist, is discussed and used for political manipulation. It cannot be said that the Ukrainian authorities did not anticipate that this issue would become relevant closer to the anniversary of Zelenskyi's inauguration.
Already last fall, there was a lot of talk in Kyiv about the fact that it would be wise to amend the laws on elections and martial law and organize presidential elections within the deadline set by the Constitution, i.e. in March 2024, without canceling martial law.
According to the interlocutors of the BBC, in the corridors of the Ukrainian government already then, last fall, there was discussion of the possibility that Russian propaganda would actively spread the topic of the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian president after the end of his five-year term and accuse him of usurping power.
Some Western politicians, in particular American Senator Lindsey Graham and PACE head Tina Cox, also expressed their opinion about the need to hold elections in Ukraine in the near future.
In such circumstances, the holding of presidential elections could be perceived as a strategic step aimed at preventing Russian propaganda and responding to calls from Western partners.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself then expressed his readiness to hold elections under the condition of financing and providing observers from the West.
"I don't want the government to hang on (only to the government)," he stressed.
In a conversation with the Romanian media in October, President Zelenskyi, who previously declared his intention not to run for a second term, expressed a kind of formula regarding his participation in the presidential elections: if the voting takes place before the end of the war, then he will run, and if after, he will refuse from claims for the second term.
Despite the active debate on holding elections, the final decision rests with the president. However, not only the Ukrainian "third sector" opposed the holding of the elections, but also the wider Ukrainian society. More than a hundred public organizations of various orientations signed a statement on the inadmissibility of conducting a campaign under martial law. Sociological studies have shown that the majority of Ukrainians are against holding elections before the end of the war.
Among the reasons for this attitude of Ukrainians is the impossibility of ensuring security during the elections due to constant hostilities and rocket fire, as well as the lack of opportunity to participate in voting for hundreds of thousands of military personnel and millions of refugees. In addition, many Ukrainians did not understand why billions of hryvnias should be spent in wartime to organize elections, which are not a priority at this time.
On November 6 of last year, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi expressed the opinion that "elections are not a priority now," and condemned those who bring this topic into the public dialogue as irresponsible.
From that moment, the discussion about the possibility of holding elections in Ukraine ended. It is known that President Zelensky's five-year term will not be limited.
However, the authorities understood that their decision could raise questions about the legitimacy of the president after May 20.
In February of this year, DT.ua reported that the Office of the President was preparing an appeal to the Constitutional Court.
They planned to ask whether presidential elections could be held during martial law, and whether the president could remain legitimate after his term expired.
However, the appeal never reached the court. Currently, the Constitutional Court is understaffed, which makes it difficult to make a decision.
Interlocutors from the BBC believe that it was difficult for the president's team to count on a quick court decision, especially given the difficult relationship between Zelenskyi and the court, which became complicated in 2020 during the conflict over the resignation of judges.
In addition, it was believed that a question about the legitimacy of the president could signal the insecurity of Zelenskyi himself, which brought greater reputational risks than the expected benefit.
The "Problem of May 20" became the center of attention for opponents of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, who actively spread messages about the loss of his legitimacy. This topic was first recorded by the head of the government's Center for Strategic Communications and National Security, Ihor Solovei, already at the beginning of February last year.
The social networks of the former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Ihor Mosiychuk, who is abroad, became the first channels for the spread of such messages. In his posts on Telegram and TikTok, he claimed that the failure to hold elections within the deadline set by the Constitution indicates Zelensky's usurpation of power.
Some time later, a member of the Verkhovna Rada from Zelenskyi's party, Oleksandr Dubinsky, also announced the end of the term of office of the President of Ukraine in May and emphasized the need to comply with the law.
These messages became part of a broad campaign in social networks, where critical bloggers actively discussed Ukrainian politics. In addition, "bot farms" littered social networks with comments about the "illegitimate" president.
Over time, the "problem of May 20" turned into a legitimate topic of political discussion, and even Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself was asked about his legitimacy during a press conference on February 25.
In response to this, Zelensky noted that this topic is part of the narrative of the program of the Russian Federation, and the relevant documents are in the intelligence services of the "Big Seven" countries. He noted that this is a program of the Russians, which is financed and directed against Ukraine.
In two days, the Intelligence Committee under the President of Ukraine expanded the topic with its statement. According to them, Russia plans to intensify its efforts within the framework of the "Maidan-3 special operation" in the coming weeks. In November of last year, in an interview with the Sun newspaper, President Zelensky mentioned this special operation, which, according to him, is aimed at overthrowing the Ukrainian government (in Ukraine, these statements were perceived with a certain amount of irony).
In the statement of the committee, "Maidan-3" was called the most expensive action of the Russian special services in their history, stating that its budget was allegedly 1.5 billion dollars.
"The campaign methodology is typical of the Russian special services: they question the legitimacy of the decisions of the Ukrainian authorities made after May 20, spread panic, despair, artificially create a confrontation between the civilian population and the military, spread various "conspiracy theories"... By the design of the enemy, until the first half In June, it is planned to stir up the situation in our country, and then, using this chaos, inflict a military defeat on Ukraine in the East. This is the key idea of their operation," the statement read.
It seems that Russia has been actively involved in the development of the topic of the illegitimacy of Volodymyr Zelensky since March. Russia's representative to the UN, Vasyl Nebenzia, expressed a tough stance at the Security Council meeting, calling Zelensky a "dictator" and declaring that he becomes illegitimate after May 21 due to his refusal to hold elections.
The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov, softened the tone a bit, expressing uncertainty about the events after May 21.
These statements, according to Ihor Soloviev of the BBC, are aimed at an international audience in order to weaken the position of the Ukrainian authorities. At the same time, Russian talk shows, Telegram channels and mass media actively discuss the topic of Zelensky's illegitimacy, and experts and politicians express their views, ranging from Konstantin Zatulin to Oleg Tsarev.
According to the Center for Strategic Communications, Zelenskyi is called a "usurper" and an "illegitimate" president in the Russian media. Even the RT channel presented a clip criticizing Zelensky.
Although the Kremlin's official position on Zelenskyi's legitimacy remains unclear, there are some signs of a possible recognition of illegitimacy. For example, the statement of the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, that Putin may be left without a partner to conclude a peace treaty.
In turn, Kyiv has already responded in advance to the possible recognition of Zelensky as illegitimate, stating that it does not see legal grounds for recognizing Putin as the democratically elected president.
In Kyiv, the interlocutors of the BBC expect that after the anniversary of the inauguration of Volodymyr Zelensky, Russian information attacks on him and his legitimacy will intensify.
"We understand that we are dealing with a Russian information campaign, which is joined even by some Ukrainian personalities, for whom their public image is more important than Ukraine's defense capability", - notes the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak.
Representatives of the Ukrainian authorities claim that they have evidence of the Russian origin of these information attacks, but have never published these materials.
Zelenskyi's team suspects that political motives may encourage the parliamentary opposition, in particular supporters of former President Petro Poroshenko, to promote the topic of the president's illegitimacy.
However, some representatives of the "European Solidarity" party reject these accusations. "The situation is already very serious. Everyone should take it easy on this topic. It doesn't really make sense. Everyone understands the possible consequences," said one of Poroshenko's influential associates.
Podoliak believes that the promotion of the "May 20 problem" by the Russians has two goals.
First, to sow doubts among Western partners about the legitimacy of the Ukrainian leadership and the viability of Ukraine as a state. They are trying to include this topic in the political agenda of Western countries. Moscow's calculation is that this topic will become part of mainstream discussions in the West, which will lead to fatigue with Ukraine and withdrawal of support.
Secondly, to drive Ukrainians into depression. "They broadcast messages to our fellow citizens about the hopelessness of the situation, the lack of elections and democracy, the illegitimacy of the president, in order to make them weak," adds Podolyak.
Despite this, the Ukrainian authorities conduct an active non-public explanatory campaign among foreign political elites.
The fifth anniversary of the inauguration of Volodymyr Zelenskyi coincides with critical moments in the great war provoked by Russia. During this period, Russian troops carry out attacks in the Kharkiv direction.
Also, a new law on mobilization will enter into force these days, which may lead to an increase in the number of Ukrainian men being mobilized into the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Recently, Ukrainian cities and villages have witnessed power outages due to constant Russian strikes on the country's energy infrastructure.
According to the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podoliak, Ukrainians are experiencing heavy psychological pressure, and perhaps right now they are more vulnerable to large-scale informational attacks aimed at public consciousness.
However, he adds that everything depends on whether Ukraine will receive enough weapons and whether it will be able to change the situation at the front. If there is large-scale positive information, it can completely change the internal agenda and trigger other discussions.
According to Oleksiy Antipovich, head of the Kyiv sociological service "Rating", the issue of the president's legitimacy "absolutely does not exist" in the public consciousness of Ukrainians. Surveys show that 70% of Ukrainians are against holding elections before the end of the war, and holding elections in particular will not change anything.
Promoting the topic of Zelenskyi's illegitimacy is "a blow to the wall," notes Podolyak. This topic may increase in the coming days, but it will be a marginal phenomenon.
