Logistics of the Armed Forces and supply on the "last kilometer" suffer from Russian FABs

As we remember, one of the reasons for the fall of Avdiivka was the mass sorties of Russian aircraft with bombs.

For the first time since the beginning of the great war, the headquarters of the Russians were able to organize simultaneous flights of dozens of planes. There were some days when 150-200 modified bombs arrived at Ukrainian positions. And occasionally it was really big ammunition. For example, FAB-1500 fell on the plant in Krasnohorivka.

And half-ton bombs (FAB-500) were used en masse. Despite the fact that the Russian planning and correction module has not yet reached the accuracy of the Western analog JDAM with a hit "at about 5 meters", for strikes on buildings, Russian aerial bombs have proven to be effective.

By simply destroying buildings, breaking roads, entrances, overpasses - the logistics of the Armed Forces and supplies on the "last kilometer" suffered from the Russian aviation.

At the same time, the Russians were forced to "reveal" themselves - the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced in recent months about the downing of 13 Russian combat aircraft: Su-34 bombers, as well as Su-35 fighters that accompanied them.

Bombs of Afghanistan

After the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from Avdiivka, the front did not collapse, Russia entered positional battles.

At the same time, the Russian propaganda channel of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation "Zvezda" reported that Shoigu visited one of their military industrial complex enterprises.

This is the 53rd arsenal in the Nizhnegorod region, where the Russians recycle old ammunition and produce new bombs, shells, VOGs.

The plot is about doubling the production of FAB-1500, but it achieved the greatest resonance due to the news about the restoration of the FAB-3000 project.

These aerial bombs have 1400 kg of explosives - a serious load and means of destruction.

Such bombs were used by the Soviet army during the invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s. She hit them on the lapis lazuli mines of Kuran-o-Munjan, on the Mujahideen troops besieging Kabul, on the then strongholds of the Islamists.

In modern Russia, these FABs, converted into KABs (“guided aerial bombs”), are now called “tsar bombs”, although in fact they are cast iron to which they are trying to attach a set of wings for planning and GPS.

Experiments with pre-series batches are still ongoing. It's not just about attaching big wings to the bomb, and then the heavy ammunition will fly where it needs to go. Instead, there are many engineering considerations to consider.

The continuous impact zone of the FAB-3000 bomb is 35 meters. The zone of severe contusions and destruction is 150 meters. If there are equipped positions with ceilings, engineering cladding and a parapet, then the affected area is smaller.

That is why the large FABs were decommissioned at one time, having been tested "beyond the river" (the unofficial name of the war in Afghanistan, as in the 1980s they called the crossing over the Amu Darya River on the Afghan-Uzbek border and across the Panj River - on the Afghan-Tajik border. - Ed .).

The light infantry of the Afghans, who were changing positions and hiding in the mountains, were not the easiest targets for the Soviet aerial bombs.

The only carrier of this tool in the Russian Federation is the Tu-22M3 bomber - due to the size of the bomb hatches and the nuances of mounting.

There are no more carriers of "three-ton" bombs in Moscow.

The Russian "military blogger" Fighterbomber notes that, in addition to the Tu-22MZ, the FAB-3000 can theoretically carry the Su-34 as well - two bombs each mounted under the wings.

However, both Su-34 and Tu-22 with heavy aerial bombs lose maneuverability, which makes them vulnerable to air defense.

There are still old Tu-16 strategic bombers. But these planes have long been decommissioned. The Tu-16 was developed in the 1950s and was decommissioned in the 1990s.

The processing of other aircraft will affect the cost of bombing the FAB-3000 and will eventually take some of the machines out of service.

That is, from a strategic point of view, it is more profitable for the Russians to dump the half-ton FAB-500, which is what they are doing now.

Fighterbomber gives a similar assessment. "Regarding the FAB-3000, I am slightly surprised by the need for it. There are no targets for it. Under it, you need to "saw" the UMPK from scratch, and it will actually be a whole plane on a bomb. And now it will be perfectly visible to any air defense system," the blogger explains.

According to him, the optimal ammunition for UMPK is a caliber of 500 kg. In different versions: cluster, incendiary, nuclear, high-explosive. Multiplying the power does not multiply the affected area. Accuracy is still required.

A single FAB-3000 dropped 20 meters from the bridge will cause the same damage as a FAB-500.

FAB-3000 was produced back in the 1940s, during Stalin's time.

They were developed for the Tu-4 (a Soviet strategic bomber that was in service with the "Long-Range Aviation" of the USSR from 1949 to the 1950s and in many respects imitated the American B-29 bomber. - Ed. ).

At that time, there were no anti-aircraft missiles in mass production (for example, the first Soviet air defense system appeared only in 1955), and FAB planned to use them for "carpet bombing".

Smaller - on ships, heavy - on important industries, dams, concrete shelters.

Uncanning and use

So far, there is no question about the production of completely new FAB-3000. Old Soviet aerial bombs are deconserved, the explosive substance is checked, if necessary changed, various correction modules from different batches are tested.

The cast part is made of cast iron, with thick walls. There is little to do from scratch, except for detonators.

They can be dropped two at a time from one side, as at the end of the Afghan war - then, already after the withdrawal of the Soviet troops, the 185th Guards Regiment from Poltava worked with such aerial bombs on the same Tu-22M3s.

After being dropped from the plane, the bomb turns into a missile without an engine - it can be intercepted by air defense.

The last time the Russians got the FAB-3000 was during the siege of Mariupol. At that time, there was no mention of correction modules - they dropped bombs on the Azovstal area, taking advantage of the fact that they were able to occupy the sky above the city.

But now the situation is different. Even if the Russians manage to insert the increased dimensions of the FAB-3000 with the UMPK flight correction complex into the bomb hatches of the TU-22M3, these aircraft are not suitable for the front line.

This strategic bomber is highly visible in the radar range.

After losing two A-50s, the Russians are unlikely to want to risk TU-22M3s as well.

Why FAB-3000 and where are such bombs used

Why is FAB-3000 uncanned? For hits on dense buildings.

The Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration or Kharkiv - the Russians don't really hide their goals. When there is an opportunity to isolate the urban development, knock out anti-aircraft defense there and start razing the blocks to the ground - they will start it.

The Russians now most often use anti-aircraft missiles in the hottest areas of the front - in the area of ​​Avdiyivka, Bakhmut, Krynyk, and Kupyansk.

That is, wherever the Russians try to press and have the opportunity to use front-line bomber aircraft.

Also, the Russian Federation regularly uses guided aerial bombs in the north-east of Ukraine - in the border strip from Chernihiv Oblast to Kharkiv Oblast. First of all, a lot recently - in Sumy Oblast.

For Kharkiv and other regions, the danger of air defense systems will arise in the event of suppression or absence of short- or medium-range air defense. This will allow the Russian aircraft to come close enough to drop aerial bombs.

Is it possible to fight them?

The example of the Ukrainian bridgehead in Krynky shows what is possible. Despite the fact that the village was turned into ruins, the defense of the armed forces did not collapse there.

It is really difficult in Krynk, first of all, with evacuation - it is not easy to take people by boat under the actions of FPV and artillery. But maneuvers, a network of observation points, dispersal of small "last kilometer" warehouses, emphasis on supply "from wheels" help the Armed Forces.

Let's return to general statistics. Since the beginning of 2024, Russian planes have dropped more than 3,500 aerial bombs on the positions of the Defense Forces. This is 16 times more than in 2023.

For the three current months - 40 bombs per day. There were days of calm, and there were also days when 150 bombs were dropped, such as at the peak of the offensive on Avdiivka, in a narrow lane.

But on average, it is 40 aerial bombs every day.

Bombs are dropped on farms in the Kherson region, and on the areas where boats that supply the left bank of the Dnieper near Krynyk dock. And also to Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, TPP, villages of Sumy region. And even in Belogord region, where the Russians had to knock out the RDK from the village of Kozinka.

Is it possible to break through the zone of responsibility of the battalion into two lanes with two dozen "supporters" with a conditional ten landings? No.

In the event that it lands successfully somewhere, it is not a fact that the Russians will have time to use this hit - a maneuverable group will be suitable for this sector of the Ukrainian defense, the neighbors will help. Especially if the position is dug correctly.

In Afghanistan, the Mujahideen set up a network of posts that intercepted the boards going to drop FABs and gave smoke signals - this meant that no matter where you were, you had to change your position immediately.

Russian UMPKs have a drawback - they kill the coordinates, and that's the end of the adjustment.

And in Ukraine, the warning about missile danger and anti-aircraft missiles is working.

Of course, FAB-3000 bombs will cause losses to the Armed Forces. Russia wants to compensate for low accuracy with power.

But this is not a "game changer". The potential of the FAB-3000 bombs is limited by the capabilities of the carrier and the fact that the Russian Federation cannot suppress Ukrainian air defense and does not have special EW aircraft.

And with the supply of F-16s and a sufficient number of JDAM cruise bombs for Ukraine, the situation evens out. Moscow will not be able to use large-power bombs en masse.