A ceasefire in Ukraine may do more harm than good. Under the current conditions, such a truce will only encourage the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, weaken Ukraine and become a prerequisite for new military actions. As Bloomberg notes, Western allies need to develop a more effective plan to support Ukraine.
The main idea of the "victory plan" of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi is that only a strong Ukraine can force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table. However, as long as Putin believes he can withstand Western support for Ukraine, his war of attrition will continue. The key question remains: how to change the Kremlin's strategy?
The war has already led to global instability and undermined the world economy. While the impulse to end the conflict is understandable, the possibility of real peace is questionable. Putin has repeatedly shown a willingness to negotiate, but his conditions, including Ukraine's renunciation of claims to annexed territories, show his insincerity.
The truce creates significant risks for Ukraine. A pause in hostilities will give the Russian army an opportunity to regain strength and correct tactical deficiencies. History suggests that Putin may use this pause to prepare for new attacks, as he did after 2014.
Moreover, the ceasefire may undermine international support for Ukraine. Western allies are already considering reducing aid, and the truce could provide a convenient excuse to cut support.
Based on this, Western allies should help Ukraine gain maximum leverage before starting any negotiations. First, it is necessary to maintain financial and military support for Ukraine. Aid cuts will only strengthen Putin's position. Additionally, allies should develop reliable security guarantees for Ukraine, even if NATO is not yet ready for direct commitments.
"Throughout his bloody reign, Putin has always been ready to break truces, break agreements and break his word when he saw the benefit. Without proper precautions, the ceasefire will not stop the war and will not benefit Ukrainians," the newspaper concludes.
The Kremlin constantly declares its readiness for negotiations with Ukraine, but only on the condition that Kyiv surrenders. Before the first peace summit, Putin expressed readiness for a ceasefire if Ukrainian troops withdraw from the annexed territories.
