The Ukrainian language can undergo various transformations in two hundred years, according to the forecasts of the Ukrainian linguist and doctor of philological sciences Pylyp Seligei. His scientific work "Ukrainian language in 2222" aroused considerable interest among linguists and scientists.
According to Seligey, dialects will gradually disappear, instead of them a "chat" language with its own "norms" and expressions will spread, and traditional language families may lose their relevance. He emphasizes that such language predictions are a unique phenomenon in Ukrainian science, and linguists should not only have the right, but should also predict the future of the language.
Seligey claims that the preservation of the Ukrainian language will depend not only on spelling or the use of feminine forms, but also on understanding the general trends of language evolution. He calls for careful study of those aspects that will determine the future of the language.
Regarding the possibility that the Ukrainian language may change beyond recognition or even cease to exist, experts are divided in their opinions. The question of the future of the Ukrainian language remains a subject of discussion among experts.
First of all, it is important to consider the possibility of our understanding of the Ukrainian language of the future, if we hear it now.
To answer this question, the author suggests turning to the original literary works, in particular to Kotlyarevsky's "Aeneid", which was published about two centuries ago (1798). According to him, the language of the "Aeneid" reflects how the people of the Central Dnieper region spoke at that time, and, with the exception of certain words, it remains understandable even now.
However, the author emphasizes that understanding the language of the future remains a big question. Even if we can understand texts written more than two hundred years ago by delving into works of art, the situation becomes more complicated when we deal with a text more than two centuries old. The author points out that although the general meaning can be understood, it is more difficult to understand the details, especially in the legal aspects, when reading modern constitutional articles.
The author also notes that during the last two centuries, many new words appeared that people of that time would have understood only in a limited context. It is noted that even modern people do not always understand expressions that became popular only a few years ago.
So, according to the author, what was written in 200 years will probably be incomprehensible to us. He concludes that rapid changes in the vocabulary, taking place against the background of reality, can lead to the fact that the Ukrainian language can significantly change and even become unrecognizable after two centuries.
Can the Latin alphabet replace the Cyrillic alphabet in the Ukrainian language? This is a possible scenario, although only one possible one.
A complete transition to the Latin script remains an unlikely option, but, according to the author, changes in the transmission of sounds in writing are still approaching.
The author points to the Serbian language as an example of "Latinization of the ancient Cyrillic language." In Serbia, the Latin script has a significant influence, especially in the Internet, commerce and the press, even though the Cyrillic alphabet is the official standard. In Ukraine, although there is no such "bifurcation" of the use of alphabets, some individuals use Latin spelling in their names and surnames in social networks, and brands often use Latin letters in their names.
According to the author, if events will develop in accordance with the Serbian scenario, then in a few dozen years informal written communication in Ukraine may switch to the Latin alphabet.
However, another scenario looks more likely: the coexistence of both alphabets. This will depend on personal preference, especially when reading texts on screens, where any transliteration may be automated.
"Alphabet wars" may turn out to be meaningless in the future, the author claims. However, in his opinion, the Cyrillic alphabet will remain the official and priority standard for a long time, although the Latin alphabet will also be available to anyone who wants to use it.
Will genitives disappear in the Ukrainian language, as it happened in some other Slavic and Indo-European languages? It is worth noting that the Ukrainian language currently has three genders: masculine, feminine and neuter.
Compared to some other Indo-European languages, which have lost the neuter gender (for example, French or Spanish), or combined the masculine and feminine genders into one common gender (as Swedish, Danish, and Dutch did), the Ukrainian language still has a long the existence of all three genera.
Many scientists believe that gender in language becomes obsolete and is maintained solely due to inertia. Therefore, on the basis of the experience of other Indo-European languages, it can be assumed that in the "distant future, the disappearance of the genus category altogether is likely," Seligey concludes.
How will the case system in the Ukrainian language change in the future? Currently there are seven of them, but their number may decrease in the distant future.
This is related to the "expansion" of the nominative case, which can "annex" the functions of other cases. In particular, we expect an increase in the number of words that are not inflected at all, and more frequent use of inflections with prepositions, particles and articles.
This tendency is already observed, for example, in the expressions "for father" instead of "father", "three hundred grams" instead of "three hundred grams", "drank tea" instead of "drank tea". The vocative case may be the first to disappear, as its use becomes less and less common in everyday speech.
Under the influence of foreign languages, there is also the forgetting of the declension of traditionally Ukrainian place names that are not borrowed. This can be found in expressions such as "I live in Mukachevo", "forest park in Holosievo", "museum in Pyrogovo", "route to Svyatoshino".
Declining cases is a general trend in Indo-European languages. Although cases will probably not disappear completely in the coming centuries, the spread of indeclinables and the expansion of the nominative case may contribute to the gradual decline of cases, notes Seligey.
This process can continue until the case category is completely removed from the Ukrainian language.
How will commas change in the future, when the influence of social networks and freedom of speech will become more and more powerful?
Nowadays, word of mouth, social networks and instant messengers are significantly changing the style of writing. It is predicted that in the future sentences will become shorter, the literary language will be closer to the spoken language, and the rules will be softer.
Changes in punctuation, which is now an integral part of learning, promise to make it much easier. The Internet and social media are expected to influence writing style in media and fiction, reducing the average sentence length and simplifying sentence structure.
"Syntactic compression" is already observed, which manifests itself in shorter phrases, for example, "cheese from Poland" instead of "cheese produced in Poland" or "graduated from graduate school" instead of "graduated from graduate school."
As for punctuation marks, social media and chats are already ignoring their importance, which may indicate that they may become less important in the future. In general, the future will resemble English, where commas, although they exist, do not cause much trouble if they are omitted.
Regarding which words in the Ukrainian language may die out, and which ones may appear, the forecast is quite obvious. Typically Ukrainian words that indicate outdated realities and objects will gradually die out. At first, they can pass into the passive reserve of the language, and later disappear altogether.
In modern speech, it is rare to hear many words from older literary works and dictionaries. Although this may cause sadness, for many it is a testament to the development of the language rather than its decline.
The language community will decide which words will remain in use. The normativity of words will be determined not only by their presence in dictionaries, but also by their actual use.
As for the source of new words, it is most likely that they will be borrowed from foreign languages, in particular English. The English language is already leading in terms of the number of new words and the speed with which the vocabulary is updated. Thus, it can be assumed that what appears in the English vocabulary will sooner or later appear in other languages, including Ukrainian.
What will remain the most stable language? If stability can be found anywhere, it is in phonetics, that is, in the sound of language.
Phonetics always changes the slowest. This applies to all languages, because the sound system is always very systematic. Changes here are rare and develop slowly.
So, it is safe to say that during the coming centuries the Ukrainian language will sound roughly the same as it does now, perhaps with some new words, phrases and sentence structures.
Ukrainian phonetics was recorded a long time ago, namely in the 13th century. It was then that the composition of phonemes that we still use today was formed: six vowels and 32 consonants, including 22 hard and 10 soft.
If anything is changing, it may be the reduction of regional differences in pronunciation.
However, for these and other predictions to come true, one important condition is necessary - the preservation of the language itself and its speakers.
Will the Ukrainian language exist in 200 years? This question is obviously one of the most important, and the answer to it is not as clear-cut as many would like.
"The degree of uncertainty increases dramatically here," and there are several scenarios, Seligey writes.
The worst of them is the gradual decline and degeneration of the language. It is possible if the number of speakers of the language decreases significantly, and economic instability is added to it. The war with Russia, due to which millions of Ukrainians went abroad, increases the probability of this scenario.
In general, the author estimates its probability at 35%.
"The war dealt a serious blow to our demography. The longer it lasts, the more migrants will remain in host countries. In fact, these are lost speakers of the Ukrainian language", - this is how Pylyp Seligey comments on his conclusions.
The author calls "stable development" the most likely, realistic scenario. This means that the use of the Ukrainian language, at least, will not decrease, and its condition will improve or remain stable. The chances of such a development are 55%.
This is possible even if the number of speakers decreases - a trend that demographers are increasingly talking about.
It is unlikely that the number of native speakers will remain at the current level, but an increase is possible at the end of this or the beginning of the next century due to immigration, Seligey predicts.
The main prerequisite is the absence of major disasters and peaceful development of the country.
"I think we should prepare for the influx of immigrants... In order for the Ukrainian language not to lose its demographic power, a well-thought-out migration and language policy is needed," he emphasized in a comment for the Ukrainian BBC.
There is also an optimistic scenario, but its chances are the lowest - 15%. Under it, the number of native speakers will increase significantly, the language itself will become extraterritorial, that is, it will go beyond the borders of one country, and its use will expand thanks to foreigners.
However, a lot needs to be done for this. At the very least, Ukraine should become a regional leader, and before that, win the war and start a rapid economic rise.
Why predict language? Regardless of whether most of Seligey's predictions come true or remain in the realm of science fiction, many Ukrainian experts are convinced that thinking in this direction is very useful.
These reflections are "a kind of challenge," says Larisa Masenko, a linguist and author of books on sociolinguistics. In her opinion, such a forecast will appeal especially to schoolchildren and students, especially for the sake of "simplifying the excessively regulated system of punctuation marks" in the Ukrainian language.
She believes that the author offered a rather "optimistic picture of the future of humanity", which is not shared by everyone.
It is impossible to verify the correctness of the predictions, she says, but it should be remembered that the future of the language "depends on each of us."
"I am impressed that the author does not offer simple answers to complex questions. On the contrary, it tracks the evolution of the development of various languages, compares their development with Ukrainian, and already on this basis tries to look into tomorrow (and the day after tomorrow). Therefore, the forecasts seem quite realistic," says historian and local historian Stanislav Tsalyk.
What practical value can linguistic forecasting have?
"Forecasting is necessary so that we don't poke around like a blind kitten," says Seligey.
He emphasizes that professional forecasts are not about what "will definitely happen", but about what "can be" or "will happen under certain conditions". They show "under what conditions and by what means we can avoid dangers and achieve the desired goals."
Linguist Oleksandr Skopnenko is convinced that forecasts in the humanitarian sphere can bring no less benefit than, for example, in the economic sphere.
"Is economic forecasting strange to you? No. For example, now military forecasting has become commonplace for us. But it so happened that many socio-humanitarian studies are based only on the past and the present. This is very bad," he says.
Moreover, he believes that it was even possible to predict a war between Russia and Ukraine using linguistic methods:
"Now it is possible to reproach many scientists that before the war they did not pay attention to what was happening outside our border.
