The Russian leadership does not intend to end the war against Ukraine through serious negotiations, but instead is actively accumulating resources to continue hostilities until 2027. This was stated on the "Espresso" by the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council, Andriy Kovalenko.
Andriy Kovalenko emphasized that the work of the Russian military-industrial complex, economic accents, and Putin's statements indicate that the Russian Federation is preparing for a long war. According to the expert, the Kremlin seeks not only to wage war, but also to conduct information manipulation, discrediting the Ukrainian leadership in the international arena.
“They are trying to use the narrative about the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian president to negotiate a war without Ukraine’s participation. In this context, Moscow is pinning its hopes on the newly elected US President Donald Trump,” Kovalenko noted.
Despite the Kremlin's ambitions, its resources are not limitless. Russia depends on the support of partners such as China, which help it circumvent sanctions and maintain its military-industrial complex.
“If we can involve China in the negotiations and convince it to take a neutral or pro-Ukrainian position, this could change Moscow’s rhetoric,” Kovalenko believes.
Another important aspect is Russia's attempts to change the international position on Ukraine's European integration. The Kremlin is actively promoting the idea that Ukraine should not become a member of NATO and is trying to impose these views on the Trump team.
“Our task is to prevent manipulation of security guarantees so that they do not include concessions that could weaken Ukraine's European integration or its security guarantees,” Kovalenko emphasized.
Russia seeks to prolong the war, step up its diplomatic game, and take advantage of potential shifts in world politics. However, Ukrainian diplomacy, together with international partners, must prevent Moscow's attempts to use negotiations as a tool of manipulation.
