The International Monetary Fund (IMF) worsened the growth of Ukraine's economy for 2025, reducing it by 0.5% to 2-3% of GDP. It happened against the background of prolonged military conflict, damage to energy infrastructure and restrictions in the labor market, which adversely affect the economic development of the country.
According to the Prescrilism of the Fund, in 2024, real GDP is expected to increase at 3.5%. However, in 2025, economic growth will slow down to 2-3%, which is the result of adverse factors, in particular, the continuation of the war with Russia.
The reduction of economic growth forecast is not only limited to the IMF. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has also recently adjusted its forecast for 2025, reducing it to 3.5% of the previous 4.7%. This indicates a general weakening of economic activity in Ukraine.
In addition, the World Bank also reduced GDP growth forecast by 2025, to 2% of the previous 6.5%. However, the Bank raised the forecast by 2026 to 7%, indicating the possibility of recovery of the economy in the long run.
The forecasts of the National Bank of Ukraine were also changed: given the security risks and the difficult situation in the labor market, the NBU reduced the forecast of real GDP growth by 2025 from 4.1% to 3.6%. At the same time, the State Budget-2025 was built on GDP growth at 2.7%.
The situation in the Ukrainian labor market and energy sector, as well as external economic factors, continue to remain important challenges for restoring the country's economy in war.
