The International Monetary Fund published a forecast in which it expressed fears about the possible prolongation of the war in Ukraine until the middle of 2026. This is expected in the case of a negative scenario of the development of the situation, for which military actions do not subside due to the further escalation of the conflict and the achievement of the stability of diplomatic regulation.
Under the baseline scenario, the war will end by the end of 2025.
The negative scenario "entails a longer and more intense shock to economic activity, budgetary needs and the balance of payments" of Ukraine.
Also, the fund expects a slowdown in Ukraine's economy in any case in 2025 "due to an increasingly tight labor market, the consequences of Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and uncertainty about the ongoing war."
The IMF supports raising taxes in Ukraine and strengthening policies on "domestic revenue mobilization" due to high inflation risks.
