The International Monetary Fund has confirmed its economic outlook for Ukraine for 2025, but warned that the improvement in performance is being held back by the ongoing war and Russian attacks on critical infrastructure. Alfred Kammer, head of the IMF's European Department, noted that expectations of the war continuing into 2026 remain a key factor in the cautious economic outlook.
In its updated October World Economic Outlook, the IMF left the forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth at 2% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. At the same time, the Fund adjusted expectations for public debt: by the end of next year, it will amount to 108.6% of GDP, which is slightly lower than the previous estimate of 110%.
According to Kammer, the IMF took into account the position of the Ukrainian government, which recognizes that the war will last longer, as well as the consequences of Russian attacks on the energy system, which are hampering economic recovery.
He particularly emphasized the importance of structural reforms — fighting corruption, strengthening institutions, and improving governance efficiency. This, the IMF believes, will form the basis for further negotiations on debt restructuring and Ukraine's progress toward EU membership.
Separately, Kammer drew attention to the need to mobilize domestic revenues. Despite significant assistance from international donors, Ukraine must strengthen its ability to independently finance its budget, in particular through tax reform.
Previously, there were reports of pressure from the IMF regarding a controlled devaluation of the hryvnia in preparation for a new financial support package.
