Ukraine is dangerously close to losing control of Avdiivka, an important strategic settlement near Donetsk, where hostilities have been ongoing since 2014. This was reported by the Washington Post.
Avdiivka is a typical 29-kilometer-long strip of ruins stretching from southeast to northeast, two to three kilometers wide. Since the beginning of the conflict in Donbas, this district has been on the front line.
After the offensive of the Russian troops, the Ukrainian forces successfully held the defense against the attempts of the Russians to advance in this direction. However, in early October, the Russian army launched an offensive on the positions in Avdiivka and on its flanks. According to the Armed Forces, after four months of constant attacks, the Russians suffered significant military and technical losses.
The ruined coke plant, once a symbol of the Ukrainian economy in the east of the country, "is likely to become the last Ukrainian fortress in Avdiivka", according to Washington Post journalists who visited the area.
"Ukrainian troops claim that it is only a matter of time before they have to retreat from the city, and already on Thursday they announced the retreat from some positions due to the rapid advance of Russian forces," WP notes.
Some in the Ukrainian military have compared the coke plant to Azovstal, the huge metallurgical plant in Mariupol where Ukrainian forces held a last stand before losing the city in 2022. Hundreds of Ukrainians were then held captive at Azovstal.
"It will be very difficult and probably ineffective to storm a coke plant," says the drone operator of the "Alfa" unit in Avdiivka, identified by WP under the pseudonym "Vitamin."
"They will try to bypass him, surround him, and that's it. Our forces will have to retreat," the soldier explains.
Why Avdiyivka is of great importance
According to the Washington Post, Avdiivka is strategically more important for Russia than Bakhmut. The expulsion of Ukrainian forces from these territories "may lift the spirits" of the Russians ahead of the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion.
"It all boils down to logistics," says Serhiy, commander of the infantry platoon of the 53rd Brigade of the Armed Forces, which is fighting in the area. "Roads, intersections, all this: there is a significant logistics base in Avdiivka."
In May, Russia captured Bakhmut. Ukraine claimed that the continuation of the defense of Bakhmut required tens of thousands of casualties from Russia. But this battle also exhausted the Armed Forces. Now that a full retreat from Avdiivka looks likely, Ukraine is deploying new forces from amphibious assault brigades to counter Russian attacks and continue its defense. Avdiyivka could be the first serious test for the new commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, who must decide when to admit defeat and retreat.
Many in the military accuse Syrskyi, who previously commanded Ukraine's ground forces, of delaying the resolution of situations like the one in Bakhmut last year, when the city was besieged, for too long.
"The capture of Avdiyivka would mark Moscow's most important battlefield victory since the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive last year - and would be the clearest evidence that Russian forces are regaining the initiative, as Kiev is short of soldiers, weapons, ammunition, morale and money."
Drones instead of artillery: shortage of shells in the Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka
The Ukrainian military is critically short of artillery shells in the battle for Avdiivka.
Andrew Harding, a BBC correspondent, notes that the artillery provided by the Czech Republic can simultaneously fire up to 36 shells, and previously fired 80 shells daily at Russian positions near Avdiivka. However, the situation has changed now. “At the moment we have two shells, but there are no charges for them ... so we cannot fire them. At this moment, we have run out of shells," explains Ukrainian officer Oleksiy from the 110th mechanized brigade.
It is noted that the shortage of shells significantly affects the combat capabilities in Avdiivka. In these conditions, the Ukrainian military decided to use FPV drones as an alternative to artillery. They are more accurate, faster and easier to manufacture. However, the Russian troops have the same equipment, which complicates the situation.
This tactic is to use drones to stop attacks by small groups of enemy infantry, leaving the artillery for more important targets. This is part of the "active defense" currently being used by Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka.
"Holding Avdiivka may not make sense, but we do it anyway, because we inflict more losses on the enemy here than we suffer. We are destroying their stocks," said one of the soldiers.
Is Ukraine preparing to retreat?
According to the coordinator of strategic communications of the National Security Council of the White House, John Kirby, due to the lack of ammunition in the Armed Forces, Avdiivka may fall under the control of Russian troops.
"We receive messages from Ukrainian partners that the situation there is critical. As Russian forces continue to put pressure on Ukrainian positions, there is a threat that Avdiyivka may come under their control," the American official said.
Currently, there is no official information about the retreat of the Ukrainian army from most of Avdiivka. However, military bloggers and commentators speculate that due to the circumstances that happened this week, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are gradually withdrawing from the city, and some may find themselves surrounded.
Ukrainian journalist Bohdan Miroshnikov writes: "Next will be new difficult decisions and news. Our garrison remains at the 9th quarter and the Avdiyiv Coke Chemical Plant. In other parts, somewhere we have retreated, somewhere we are fighting. But I think the trend is clear."
According to the data of the Ukrainian military-analytical project DeepState, Russian troops have raised their flag over the fortified district "Zenit" in the south of the city, and some Ukrainian units may find themselves in a difficult defense.
Oleksandr Borodin, press officer of the Third Separate Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, notes: "Ukrainian forces are currently in a complex defense format. Some units work with us at 360 degrees, that is, the enemy can attack from almost any direction. We must understand that there are two armies against us. This is probably the most serious fist of the Russian Federation in Ukraine."
At the last moment, on Friday night, the commander of the active Ukrainian group "Tavria", Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, made a statement about the situation in Avdiivka.
He stressed that active fighting was ongoing in the city and the garrison was holding, adding that reinforcements and additional ammunition had been sent to it. In his statement, the general also noted:
"We have already prepared new positions and continue to create powerful defense structures, taking into account various scenarios... Every piece of Ukrainian land is of great importance to us, but the highest priority is to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers."
