Mark Urban, columnist and diplomatic reporter for The Sunday Times, believes that the war between Russia and Ukraine may be approaching a critical phase that could lead to talks between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. Highlights:
Signs of exhaustion
Urban's article states that the conflict may enter the "final, difficult phase." Both sides are showing signs of exhaustion. Putin, according to Urban, is getting nervous about Western threats to strike deep into Russia with Western weapons. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also predicts important events in the coming weeks and months.
Fatigue in Ukraine
Despite the determination of the Ukrainians to continue the struggle, there are signs of fatigue. In Ukraine, the number of people who support negotiations with Russia is growing, although the majority is still categorically against any compromises that could threaten Ukraine's territorial integrity and European integration aspirations.
In addition, there are problems with desertion and insufficient motivation among the Ukrainian military and population, which creates additional pressure on Zelenskyi's government.
Problems of Russia
There are also serious problems on the Russian side. The Russians are facing huge losses and problems with maintaining the conflict. British intelligence estimates Russia's losses at 65,000 people for July and August. With a shortage of trained soldiers and high costs, Putin is trying to avoid a general mobilization so as not to worsen the domestic political situation.
The influence of Western weapons
Ukraine is receiving Western weapons, including Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles, which can increase the level of damage to Russia. These missile systems, although limited in number, can help Ukraine achieve greater damage to Russia, which will affect the negotiation process.
US elections and their impact
Putin's indecisiveness may also be related to waiting for the results of the US presidential elections. A Kamala Harris victory could push Russia to a ceasefire, while a Donald Trump victory could escalate the situation and jeopardize arms supplies to Ukraine.
Urban's conclusion
Urban notes that the critical question is whether both sides can come to the conclusion that further fighting is futile. For now, negotiations remain possible, but the decision to start them depends on many factors, including the domestic situation in Russia and Ukraine, as well as the international context.
