Inflation in Ukraine by the end of 2024 will almost double compared to the previous year, reaching 9.7%. Such a forecast was published by the National Bank of Ukraine in its December macroeconomic and monetary review. This is a significant increase compared to the 2023 inflation rate of 5.1%.
"Actual consumer inflation accelerated (up to 9.7% y/y) and exceeded the trajectory of the NBU's forecast. Food inflation increased as a result of the more significant than expected impact of adverse weather conditions on agricultural crops. Both administrative inflation and fuel prices grew somewhat faster than expected. According to the National Bank's estimates, the rise in prices continued in November as well," this document states.
Speaking about the price increase, the National Bank singled out the following factors:
1. In October, food inflation accelerated rapidly due to the effects of hot weather without rain in the summer and autumn of the current year, which affected the yield, ripening times and quality parameters of food products, primarily a number of vegetables and fruits.
2. Due to the increase in the price of food raw materials, as well as the further increase in the production costs of enterprises for energy supply and labor wages, the prices of processed food products increased faster.
3. The growth of prices in food processing accelerated, primarily in the production of dairy, flour and meat products due to the increase in the cost of raw materials and production costs.
4. Prices for non-food products also accelerated growth, primarily under the influence of the exchange rate (currency) factor in previous periods. This probably had an impact on the slowing down of prices for clothes and shoes. Prices for services, in particular health care, communication, grew somewhat faster due to the increase in production costs.
5. Alcoholic and tobacco products became more expensive, in particular under the influence of the weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate in previous periods and the fight against shady products.
6. The growth of prices for pharmaceutical products, medical goods and equipment accelerated.
"In November, business expectations worsened against the background of the growing energy deficit, shortage of personnel and high-quality agricultural raw materials," the analysis of the National Bank notes.
