The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) plans to significantly ease currency restrictions introduced during the war. This is stated in the internal letter No. 40-0009/61174, sent to banks, in which it is stated about the consideration of possibilities for simplifying the current currency restrictions.
It is clear from it that the NBU wants to calculate the amount of currency that can go abroad from Ukraine if the authorities allow businesses to pay for old, pre-war supplies of imported goods. Apparently, these payments were initially stuck, and were not made after the introduction of currency restrictions on February 24, 2022.
The NBU wants to understand how significant the currency outflow will be and how many dollars from Ukraine's gold and currency reserves will have to be sold if it goes to concessions for payments. A final decision will be made after all information has been collected and analyzed.
As you know, the currency liberalization of the National Bank this year results in an increase in the regulator's currency sales, which is confirmed by official reports: from $2.99 billion in June 2024 to $3.3 billion in July, for example. In total, since the beginning of this year, the NBU has already sold $18.5 billion (it was able to buy only $118.6 million), which is about half of the current size of the country's gold and foreign currency reserves, which, however, are regularly replenished at the expense of international aid. But not 100%. According to the results of July, the regulator reported on the reduction of these reserves by 1.8% - to $37.2 billion.
The NBU has now requested data from banks regarding:
– Unpaid import contracts until February 23, 2021 (in particular, from January 1, 2020 to February 23, 2021, as well as from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2019 and before December 31, 2018);
- Debts for the import of goods until February 23, 2021, subject to direct lending, insurance, guarantee, guaranty of a foreign export credit agency, as well as another country through an authorized organization/person. With an indication of the residency of such a person, bank.
It seems that the new currency liberalization may affect these contracts.
It is clear that the government is in a hurry. The National Bank demanded that all these data be provided by August 23, 2024, when, apparently, they plan to start the analysis and make a decision. It is not excluded at the end of August or in September. Perhaps during the next statement regarding the revision of the NBU discount rate, which, according to the official schedule, should be published on September 19.
