On August 26, 2024, Russia launched a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine, which, according to analysts and military experts, may signal the beginning of a new intensive cycle of attacks. According to the estimates of blogger and military analyst Roman Shryk, Russia may plan to use up to 120 X-101 missiles per month. This serious increase in the intensity of shelling has the potential to significantly affect the situation on the front and the lives of civilians in Ukraine.
Let's remember the cycles of Russian shelling.
Usually they pass according to the following principle:
- Increased attacks (about 2 months),
- Attacks in the mode of "as much as produced, as many launched" (3-5 months),
- Break for the accumulation of rockets (about 2 months).
Then repetition.
The 1st period of attacks was from October 10, 2022 to March 9, 2023 (5 months). Then a break of 1 month and 3 weeks.
The 2nd period — from April 28 to September 25, 2023 (5 months). Then a break of 2 months and 2 weeks.
The 3rd period — from December 8, 2023 to July 11, 2024 (7 months). Then a break of 1 month and 2 weeks.
And today, the 4th cycle began with a new attack.
Presumably, it is worth waiting for 1.5-2 months of attacks with a "doubled" number of missiles, and then a new transition to the regime of "as many as produced, as many launched".
Let me remind you that I am counting the missiles that are the basis of mass attacks: X-101 and Kalibr.
You can sum up the number of missiles used during the entire cycle of attacks, divide by the length of the cycle and thus understand the level of production.
According to my estimates, during the 2nd shelling cycle, on average, the Russian Federation produced about 60 X-101 missiles and 35 Kalibr missiles per month.
During the 3rd cycle - an average of 61 X-101 missiles per month, and the statistics for "Calibers" were broken, since they were used rarely and unevenly.
Based on this, it can be expected that in the next few months, about 120 X-101s will be launched per month, and then they will switch to 60 missiles per month.
It is difficult to predict the frequency of shelling, since the concept of the Rashists is constantly changing.
