After a brief outbreak of interest in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, the war again returns to its usual direction - through power. While the delegations are shaking hands in Istanbul, the Russian army increases pressure on the front, preparing a large -scale offensive campaign. The peace is delayed - not on the bottom, but on the moon. And it is the fighting on the forefront, not diplomatic gestures that will dictate the course of negotiations in the future. Journalist Denis Popovich gives a direct forecast: ahead - hot summer, not cold frost.
"Whoever was counting on a truce or freezing is to you to the second floor where fantasy is written. In the war their laws. Do not affect the front, and the front influences the negotiations. And in the next half a year it will be exactly the case," - said the journalist.
Today, the war has passed a certain stage - the round of negotiations of Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul.
And if you have passed a stage, you can try to look into the future and again do a thankless business - forecasting.
Negotiations are good, but this first round is not fully predictable to peace. Russia prepares and even conducts a spring-summer offensive campaign, so all these negotiations are still similar to the process for the process.
Only after this campaign, some specifics are possible in the negotiation track. But this is not for sure, in any case, not earlier than deep autumn.
The main directions of the offensive power of the Russian army can be as follows:
- First. Sumy region. By the way, he was published by Vladimir Medinsky.
- The second is the Kharkiv region: Kupyansk, Borova.
- The third is the Pokrovsky direction.
- The fourth is Novopavlovsky.
- The fifth is Konstantinovka.
In my opinion, it is around Konstantinovka and the main combat events of the next months will unfold, because it is here that the enemy already reaches some progress. First of all - from Toretsk.
Konstantinovka is a gate to Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration. Without the capture of these cities about the capture of the Donetsk region, the Russians have no hope.
Will the Russians Konstantinovka take before the new heating season?
In my opinion - no. After the start, by the way, too. Although the front will be significantly approaching this city.
Will the enemy take Pokrovsk by autumn? In my opinion - not. And the ravine? Perhaps, though doubtful.
But will the Russians reach the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk region in the Pokrovsk or South of Pokrovsk? I think so. It is possible that the enemy will be able to enter the boundaries of Dnipropetrovsk.
So we are preparing for summer battles. I do not see other options. But, in fact, they were not. Who was counting on a truce or freezing - to you to the second floor where they write fiction. In the war their laws. Negotiations affect the front, and the front affects the negotiations. And in the next half a year it will be right.
Denis Popovich, journalist
