The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has published its forecasts for tariffs for housing and communal services, stating that they will remain unchanged in 2025. However, starting in 2026, a gradual increase in tariffs is expected, which, according to economists, will be associated with bringing them into line with the economy.
The NBU envisages a gradual increase in excise duties and tariffs for housing and communal services, however, the timing and parameters of their adjustment remain uncertain, which creates risks for the inflation forecast.
The forecast is based on the assumption that individual utility tariffs (gas, heating, and hot water) will remain unchanged throughout 2025.
However, the difficult situation in the energy sector and the state budget may lead to tariff adjustments in the coming years. It is assumed that from 2026 a gradual adjustment of tariffs to economically justified levels may begin
The regulator notes that a significant increase in the cost of energy carriers to quickly eliminate imbalances in the energy sector will increase inflationary pressure and necessitate an increase in subsidies for the population.
A long delay in increasing utility tariffs to an economically reasonable level may curb inflation, but at the same time will contribute to the accumulation of quasi-fiscal imbalances and the deterioration of the financial condition of state-owned energy companies.
This will create additional threats to investments in the sector, increase the risks of instability in the energy market, and only shift price pressure into the future.
