The National Bank of Ukraine in its inflation report predicts further emigration of Ukrainians abroad in the coming years. NBU experts expect that in 2024 the number of migrants may reach approximately 400 thousand people, and in 2025 - about 300 thousand. These figures are somewhat more pessimistic compared to previous estimates, due to the negative impact on the situation of long power outages and problems with the heating season.
According to experts, the destruction of Ukraine's energy system has significantly worsened economic conditions in the country, leading to a decrease in production activity and an increase in unemployment, which, in turn, pushes people to migrate.
The NBU also notes that the economic situation will not stabilize in the near future due to high risks and dangers. It is expected that the net return of Ukrainians will begin only in 2026, when about 400 thousand people may return to the country. This is due to the adaptation of migrants to a new life and the continuation of difficult conditions in Ukraine, in particular, problems with electricity supply.
Regarding the demographic situation, journalist and immigration lawyer Andy Semotyuk previously expressed fears that up to 20 million citizens could leave Ukraine if Putin wins. He also emphasized that a prolonged Cold War with Russia could cost the United States about $4 trillion.
