The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has published its forecasts for tariffs for housing and communal services, combining that in 2025 they remain unchanged. However, since 2026, a gradual increase in tariffs is expected, which, according to economists, will be associated with bringing them to the economy.
The NBU provides a gradual increase in excise duties and tariffs for housing and communal services, but the terms and parameters of their adjustment remain uncertain, which creates risks to inflation forecast.
The forecast is based on the assumption that certain tariffs for utilities (gas, heating and hot water) will remain unchanged during 2025.
However, the difficult condition in the energy and the state budget can cause tariff adjustments in the coming years. It is assumed that from 2026 may be a gradual bringing tariffs to economically sound levels
The regulator notes that a significant increase in the cost of energy in the rapid elimination of imbalances in the energy sector will increase inflationary pressure and lead to an increase in subsidies for the population.
Prolonged delay in raising tariffs for housing and communal services to economically justified levels can restrain inflation, but at the same time will contribute to the accumulation of quasi-fiscal imbalances and deterioration of the financial condition of state energy companies.
This will create additional threats to the investment in the sector, increase the risks of instability in the energy market, and price pressure will only shift for the future.
