The danger of strikes by the occupiers with Zircon missiles on Ukraine: risk analysis

In the first months of 2024, at least two strikes by 3M22 Zircon missiles were recorded on the territory of Ukraine. The first incident occurred during the night of February 7 in the Dniprovskyi district of Kyiv, next to a destroyed power line. The remains of the missile were found at the scene. The second strike was recorded on March 25.

The use of Zircon missiles has raised serious questions and doubts, especially due to their narrow specificity and the expectation that they would not be used in Ukraine.

The 3M22 Zircon missile is a hypersonic cruise missile with maneuvering capabilities, capable of speeds exceeding Mach 9. Its range can reach up to 500 km at low altitudes and up to 740 km on a semi-ballistic trajectory.

Project 22350M frigates may be promising carriers for the Zircons, but their “M” modification has not yet been launched. The recorded direction of the missile launch on March 25 indicates its possible use from temporarily occupied Crimea.

Russia may be experimenting with its delivery systems in a region where there are no major delivery systems, perhaps even adapting them to land-based delivery systems. However, official verification of the missile remains has not yet been conducted.

Ukraine needs modern means to counter such missiles, as existing air defense systems are not effective enough. Without timely support from partners, Ukraine remains vulnerable to potential threats from Russia.

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