Evgeny Plinsky, a well-known investigative journalist and telethon host, emphasized the serious economic losses for the budget of Ukraine as a result of the illegal trade in tobacco products. According to his calculations, these losses amount to approximately 23 billion hryvnias annually.
Plinsky noted that all the main studies conducted by various centers, in particular Kantar-Ukraine, the "Economic Expert Platform", as well as studies commissioned by anti-tobacco organizations, indicate close numbers of losses due to the illegal tobacco market.
Plinsky mentioned that two studies - Kantar-Ukraine and "Economic Expert Platform" - showed that about 23-25% of the Ukrainian tobacco market is in the shadows.
At the same time, a study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) commissioned by the anti-tobacco public organization "Zhyttia" showed a slightly lower level of the illegal market - about 13%.
According to Plinsky, this can be explained by the difference in the methodology of the conducted research. "Here you need to look technically - at the difference in the methodology by which the research was conducted. In addition to studies by Kantar-Ukraine and KMIS, there is also a study by the "Economic Expert Platform", according to which the indicator of illegal trade in tobacco products is about 23%. Therefore, we can take the average indicator and agree that the level of the illegal tobacco market in Ukraine is 20-23%. And such an indicator will be objective and real," said Plinsky.
He added that in all the studies, estimates of budget losses were the same - about 23 billion hryvnias. "This figure was announced, in particular, at the financial committee of the parliament, and its leaders, people's deputies Danylo Hetmantsev and Yaroslav Zheleznyak, talked about it. That is, the volume of the illegal market has really increased significantly - from about 5% in 2019 to 20-23% now," Plinsky explained the trend.
As noted, according to the report of the auditing company KPMG, Ukraine is the second largest market in Europe for the level of illegal cigarette trade, second only to France.
According to the latest Kantar research, the level of the illegal cigarette market in Ukraine in 2023 reached 25.7% (as of October). Back in June 2023, this indicator was 19.5%. This percentage of shadow is an absolute record for the entire history of the Kantar study of illegal cigarette trade in Ukraine, starting in 2011.
